SPX future move based on long-term avg trend

We can see a kind of optimistic sentiment in the market currently supported by the commonly expected rates decreasing by the Fed in Q1 of 2024. When this happens it would most probably push the SPX even higher for a while at least.
Looking a the low VIX value we have not seen since January 2020 and the idea of a long-term average trend of SPX I think it would make sense to drop somewhere down to values of 3800 - 4000.