Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Aug 25th—> Aug 30th)
Weekly Market Recap 🌐
Hello Investors! 🌟 This week saw US stock markets continue their recovery from early August losses, bolstered by strong market breadth and significant economic developments. Let’s dive into the key events that shaped the financial landscape. 📈
Market Overview:
US stock markets opened the week with a strong recovery, continuing to recoup losses from earlier in August. Market breadth was notably strong, though equity volumes remained seasonally low. Treasury yields were under modest pressure, the US dollar slumped to an 8-month low, and gold reached new all-time highs on Tuesday following weaker-than-expected Philly Fed services data. On Wednesday, the BLS released annual payroll revisions, revealing a downward adjustment of 818K payrolls, or ~68K per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2009. This significant revision further set the stage for the Fed to solidify expectations for a September rate cut at the Jackson Hole Symposium later in the week. July FOMC minutes confirmed that some officials had already been open to a rate cut during their last meeting. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remained under pressure due to concerns about Chinese demand and hopes for a Gaza peace deal.
Heading into Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday, the US 2-year yield was holding at around 4%, with futures markets projecting that investors expected the Fed to begin lowering rates next month, potentially by as much as 100 bps by year’s end. **Powell delivered a message that pleased investors, acknowledging that “the time has come for policy to adjust.” By expressing increased confidence in the inflation trajectory and stating that no further cooling in the labor market is necessary, Powell reinforced the belief that a series of rate cuts are likely to begin in September. Futures markets continued to project 100 bps of easing by early next year, with close to 200 bps over the next 12 months.** For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.5%, the DJIA rose 1.3%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.4%.
**Stock Market Performance:**
- 📈 S&P 500: Up by 1.5%
- 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 1.3%
- 📈 NASDAQ: Up by 1.4%
**Economic Indicators:**
- **Treasury Yields:** The US 2-year yield held steady around 4%, as investors priced in expectations for Fed rate cuts.
- **BLS Payroll Revisions:** The downward revision of 818K payrolls, the largest since 2009, further supported the case for a September rate cut.
- **Gold Prices:** Hit new all-time highs as the US dollar slumped to an 8-month low.
- **Crude Oil Prices:** Remained under pressure amid concerns about Chinese demand and hopes for a Gaza peace deal.
**Corporate News:**
- **Target:** Delivered a strong quarter, beating on both the top- and bottom-line, with improving trends across discretionary categories.
- **TJX Companies:** Posted another strong quarter, capitalizing on the current economic environment.
- **Palo Alto Networks:** Topped estimates and raised FY product revenue guidance, though margins declined.
- **Workday:** Reported a standout quarter and raised long-term operating margin targets.
- **Lowe’s:** Reported weaker-than-expected results, missing SSS estimates and lowering its outlook due to a challenging macroeconomic environment.
- **Mixed Earnings:** Macy’s, Snowflake, Williams-Sonoma, and BJ’s Wholesale Club reported relatively poorer execution, reflecting varying degrees of macroeconomic challenges.
- **Cava Group:** Delivered impressive results, with 14%+ SSS growth, in contrast to Red Robin Gourmet, which missed and lowered its FY profit outlook.
- **AMD:** Made headlines with a 55B deal to acquire ZT Systems, aiming to better compete with Nvidia in the data center space.
**Looking Ahead:**
Next week will bring several key economic data releases and earnings reports:
- **U.S. Core PCE Inflation**
- **U.S. Q2 GDP**
- **U.S. Housing Data**
- **Earnings Reports:** CrowdStrike (
CRWD), Salesforce (
CRM), Dell Technologies (
DELL), Nvidia (
NVDA)
As we look forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
Hello Investors! 🌟 This week saw US stock markets continue their recovery from early August losses, bolstered by strong market breadth and significant economic developments. Let’s dive into the key events that shaped the financial landscape. 📈
Market Overview:
US stock markets opened the week with a strong recovery, continuing to recoup losses from earlier in August. Market breadth was notably strong, though equity volumes remained seasonally low. Treasury yields were under modest pressure, the US dollar slumped to an 8-month low, and gold reached new all-time highs on Tuesday following weaker-than-expected Philly Fed services data. On Wednesday, the BLS released annual payroll revisions, revealing a downward adjustment of 818K payrolls, or ~68K per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2009. This significant revision further set the stage for the Fed to solidify expectations for a September rate cut at the Jackson Hole Symposium later in the week. July FOMC minutes confirmed that some officials had already been open to a rate cut during their last meeting. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remained under pressure due to concerns about Chinese demand and hopes for a Gaza peace deal.
Heading into Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday, the US 2-year yield was holding at around 4%, with futures markets projecting that investors expected the Fed to begin lowering rates next month, potentially by as much as 100 bps by year’s end. **Powell delivered a message that pleased investors, acknowledging that “the time has come for policy to adjust.” By expressing increased confidence in the inflation trajectory and stating that no further cooling in the labor market is necessary, Powell reinforced the belief that a series of rate cuts are likely to begin in September. Futures markets continued to project 100 bps of easing by early next year, with close to 200 bps over the next 12 months.** For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.5%, the DJIA rose 1.3%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.4%.
**Stock Market Performance:**
- 📈 S&P 500: Up by 1.5%
- 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 1.3%
- 📈 NASDAQ: Up by 1.4%
**Economic Indicators:**
- **Treasury Yields:** The US 2-year yield held steady around 4%, as investors priced in expectations for Fed rate cuts.
- **BLS Payroll Revisions:** The downward revision of 818K payrolls, the largest since 2009, further supported the case for a September rate cut.
- **Gold Prices:** Hit new all-time highs as the US dollar slumped to an 8-month low.
- **Crude Oil Prices:** Remained under pressure amid concerns about Chinese demand and hopes for a Gaza peace deal.
**Corporate News:**
- **Target:** Delivered a strong quarter, beating on both the top- and bottom-line, with improving trends across discretionary categories.
- **TJX Companies:** Posted another strong quarter, capitalizing on the current economic environment.
- **Palo Alto Networks:** Topped estimates and raised FY product revenue guidance, though margins declined.
- **Workday:** Reported a standout quarter and raised long-term operating margin targets.
- **Lowe’s:** Reported weaker-than-expected results, missing SSS estimates and lowering its outlook due to a challenging macroeconomic environment.
- **Mixed Earnings:** Macy’s, Snowflake, Williams-Sonoma, and BJ’s Wholesale Club reported relatively poorer execution, reflecting varying degrees of macroeconomic challenges.
- **Cava Group:** Delivered impressive results, with 14%+ SSS growth, in contrast to Red Robin Gourmet, which missed and lowered its FY profit outlook.
- **AMD:** Made headlines with a 55B deal to acquire ZT Systems, aiming to better compete with Nvidia in the data center space.
**Looking Ahead:**
Next week will bring several key economic data releases and earnings reports:
- **U.S. Core PCE Inflation**
- **U.S. Q2 GDP**
- **U.S. Housing Data**
- **Earnings Reports:** CrowdStrike (
CRWD), Salesforce (CRM), Dell Technologies (DELL), Nvidia (NVDA)As we look forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
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