Going to try some lotto bets

2023年10月30日

I think it's possible we may be about to see a big down week in SPX. Timing is generally not my strongest point and I usually avoid timing forecasts (Because even a flat candle makes you totally wrong) but a whole confluence of factors come together to make it worth a shot.

Also done well enough in bear trades over the last month to use some of the profit for some more speculative bets.

If we see a strong down week I think it's possible we could see SPX significantly close to 3900 by then end of the week.

Further to this, I do not think 3800 will break.

I think very aggressive OTM puts with a week/two on them have an above average chance of working well here.

I also think if they do work it's unlikely we'd get much under 3800 in this swing which would make this the ideal strike to short puts for a spread and not be giving up expected profit on the move.

This is obviously highly speculative. A lot of things come together to support it might happen.
I'd caution if this move is not setting up now around 4160 we're very likely going to see a retest of 4250 (An excellent spot to try shorts again).

Taking a try at this 4160.

Buying 4050, 3900 and 3950 puts. Selling 3780 and 3760.

Taking these for end of week and end of next week.

2023年10月31日

交易進行

Taking more of these

2023年11月1日

交易進行

And some more 4240.

Really big positions on around 4240. I do not think 4250 is likely to be broken if we are to make a big dump.