2025 - 2026 Roadmap

2025:
- Cut Gov Spending
- (Lower GPD)
- Cut Gov Temp Workers
- (Lower Employment)
- Deport Service Workers
- (Increasing inflation)
- Tarif's
- (One time inflation event)

Cutting government spending should
cause a recession.

Note march 2025 : Drop and Bounce from seasonality.

2026:
- '2020 Fed Carry' removed
- Call of 5 yr 1.5% loans.
- Called loans result in equity sell off.
- Treasury funds gov with 30 year
- Incentive to lower rates first.

The government plans to switch from using 2-year bonds to 30-year bonds to fund itself by the end of 2025 or early 2026, under an agreement between the Treasury and the Fed. The downside? With 30-year bonds, they'll be stuck paying today's high 5% interest rate for three decades.

Lowering the rate first would be better and save money, which is possible if a recession happens before the switch.

To help, the Fed agreed to leave and make room in the 30-year bond market.