$SPX: Update

The pullback from 2179 to 2148 through extensions and retracements is still controlling events as seen in the green bar. And a double bottom at 2160/2161 suggest short term strength.

Depending upon the NFPR to be released Friday, anything could happen but sooner or later I think we will get a decent correction given September’s history and assuming if enough fear creeps into the market.

Additionally, shorter term EW counts, likely rate increases (1 in Dec my bet) and the struggle of fighting a big, fat even number support the case for a 3% to 5% correction. This is unlikely to be Armageddon and longer term we could easily visit the 2265 area depending upon the pace of rate hikes and earnings.

VIX needs to get well above 15 and the arrow underscores its influence on price with even with small increases.

The only thing bothering me about a correction is everybody is talking about it which, in my mind, diminishes it probability.

Anyway, the market could reach for 2197 (2196.6), retest the 2194 area or simply fail around 2186 at the upper bounds of the channel.