If the S&P500 is to bounce, surely it should be today?

We all know that global indices have been under pressure whilst the US dollar and bond yields scream higher. But with the S&P 500 respecting key levels of support and forming a bullish hammer on Wednesday, perhaps it is time for at least a sympathy bounce?

Furthermore, the hammer low perfectly respected trend support and closed above the 200-day EMA, with a bullish RSI (2) that curled higher from oversold and the RSI (14) is itself nearing oversold.

We're not looking for a strong risk-on rally, but a small bounce (perhaps towards the August lows of 4400 gap resistance level) may not be such a crazy idea. At which point we could seek evidence of a swing high and a potential break of trend support.

Naturally, an immediate break of yesterday's low would also invalidate trend support and likely signal its next let lower.