06/30 Weekly Gamma Exposure Outlook

🧠 SPX Weekly Outlook — Gamma Breakout + Short Week Setup

The bulls finally broke through after weeks of painful grinding — and they did so with force.
📈 Thursday & Friday brought a textbook gamma squeeze as SPX sliced through the long-standing 6100 call wall, triggering sharp upside acceleration.

We are now firmly in positive Net GEX territory.
🔺 Entire GEX structure has shifted higher.
🎯 New squeeze zone at 6225, with major call resistance near 6200.



🔍 What Just Happened?

📊 The 6060–6120 zone acted as a tough resistance range for weeks — until last week’s breakout.

💥 Put skew collapsed, suggesting downside hedges are being unwound.
📉 VIX and IV keep dropping, confirming a shift toward lower-volatility environment.

🧲 Strong Net GEX across expiries created sustained upward dealer pressure → we’re in long gamma mode.

✅ Bullish Bias — But Stay Tactical

We're in a bullish gamma regime, so dips are likely to be bought.
Key pullback zone to watch: 6125–6060.

🛠️ Strategy Ideas:
• Wait for a 6060–6125 retest before re-entering longs
• Use shorter-DTE bull put spreads or 0DTE gamma scalps above 6130+
• Scale out or trim risk near 6200–6225

⚠️ Risks to Watch

We’re overextended short-term.
🚨 Losing 6130–6125 could spark a quick flush to 6050.

Bearish signals to monitor:
• IV spike or renewed put buying
• Loss of 6100 = no-man’s land without confirmation
• Consider short-term debit put spreads if breakdown confirms

🗓️ Short Trading Week Note

🇺🇸 U.S. markets closed Friday, July 5 for Independence Day.
This compresses flows into 4 sessions. Expect:

📌 Early week dealer hedging
📌 Possible positioning unwind on Thursday

💡 Weekly Trade Idea — Structure in Place



💼 Setup:
• Put Butterfly below spot
• 3x Call Diagonal Spreads above spot (5pt wide)
• Slight net negative delta, 11 DTE

🎯 Why it works:
• Leverages IV backwardation
• Profits from time decay
• Favors a stable or modestly bullish week
• Takes advantage of horizontal skew (July 11 vs July 14)

💰 Profit Target: 10–20% return on ~$1,730 risk.
Take profits before time decay kills the center valley — don’t overstay. 🏃💨

📌 Final Thoughts:
The 6100 breakout was technically & gamma-structurally significant,
but big moves often retest before continuing.

Let price breathe.
Stay aligned with gamma exposure profile. 🔄