$SPX - Top of the Mountain

SPX is once again, since its uptrend began on 11/06/2023, breaking below the 3-month simple moving average and now also the Monthly Heiken Ashi average (black stepped line).

This time, it seems to have the conditions to start its descent from the mountain and confirm that we reached the top on 02/18/2025.

Looking at the vast majority of stocks in today’s pre-market, this appears to be the scenario.

And this impacts my recent positions. In this scenario, it will seek the 1-year simple moving average, where it should make a pullback (HH or LH?).

Time for caution and to avoid new long entries.

註釋

As predicted in the analysis, the index found its top and sought support at the 1-year simple moving average. This week, it will likely make a pullback, but for now, I find a long-term bullish recovery highly unlikely.

Notice that at the end of the expansion phase, there was a higher horizontal volume (price-based) above 5,750. Meanwhile, vertical volume increased over the past week during the decline, signaling the market's willingness to liquidate positions.

The pullback should target the 1-month exponential moving average and the 3-month simple moving average. That will be the test to determine whether we are truly headed toward the end of the cycle and market hysteria over a recession.

交易進行

- More Downside Ahead

On the Chart:

Timeframe: Weekly

Larger Rectangles: Heiken Ashi High & Low (3 months)

Smaller Rectangles: Heiken Ashi High & Low (1 month)

Background: 1-Year Donchian Channels

Volume Analysis: 20 months

After the accurate call on the S&P 500 cycle top, today will mark the end of any doubts for those still uncertain about the retracement phase ahead.

Losing the 1-year simple moving average (purple line) is a clear sign of exhaustion in the recent expansion since April 2023.

Until the index reclaims the breakout of the 3-month simple moving average (yellow line), there is no reason to consider a recovery.

Manage your buys and be bold with Shorts.

註釋

- WOW!

5 天前

註釋

📉 – What’s Next?

Following the accurate call on the top formation on February 20, 2025, the downtrend remains intact from a long-term perspective, as long as the price stays below the 1-Year Simple Moving Average (SMA) 🟣.

Despite recent upward movements, the price still faces pressure from the descending trendline (TL🐻) that originates from the February top, with a secondary high confirmed on March 25, 2025. This is illustrated by the dashed green line 📉.

🔎 Technical Highlights:

• Today, SPX broke above a weekly Heiken Ashi swing high, accompanied by increased daily volume—yet still lacks convincing strength for a trend reversal.

• Looking at the past 20 weeks, the highest vertical volume was recorded three weeks ago, marking a significant point of interest — however, volume has been declining steadily since then, signaling weakening participation.

• On the horizontal volume profile, the 5,420–5,360 range stands out as a key area of current price interaction 🧭.

⚠️ Cautionary Note: This remains a challenging environment for new entries, especially in high-beta ADR stocks, which are my primary focus. Volatility and lack of trend confirmation suggest a defensive posture is prudent for now.

❓Currently observing the SPX for a decisive breakout above its 3-Month Simple Moving Average (SMA) before initiating additional long exposures. Are you seeing similar signals in your assessment?