Financial Cycle (not Economic Cycle) - Chu kỳ tài chính
Financial cycle:
- 10Y down and sideway -> Gold up (*)
+ In phase (*): In 10Y down -> capital will flow to manufacturing, Real estate, industrials, etc.
- 20Y up and reaching top -> Gold down and sideway (**)
Correlate with unemployment rate:
- Rise stronger as the (**) reach its ending and vice versa
US10Y:
- Interestingly, interest rate does not affect how businesses operate and innovate economically. In fact, rising interest in long-term -> Economy doing great, innovations prosper, allowing lenders to charge high
- 10Y down and sideway -> Gold up (*)
+ In phase (*): In 10Y down -> capital will flow to manufacturing, Real estate, industrials, etc.
- 20Y up and reaching top -> Gold down and sideway (**)
Correlate with unemployment rate:
- Rise stronger as the (**) reach its ending and vice versa
US10Y:
- Interestingly, interest rate does not affect how businesses operate and innovate economically. In fact, rising interest in long-term -> Economy doing great, innovations prosper, allowing lenders to charge high
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