Bearish for a couple of reasons, will cover them here and link to ideas that support.
- bearish ascending wedge
- coupled with long term upper resistance line
- attached links showing convergence of fib lines from 1972 to 2000s top and 2007 to 2009 low at current S&P500 price point
- debt ceiling fiasco in US this summer, could spell trouble like in July 2011 when US credit rating was downgraded over debt ceiling problem en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt-ceiling_crisis_of_2011
- duration of bull market is stretching thin, rates going up reducing consumer spending & debt creation cycle slow down do not seem to be priced in (throw in your auto loan, student loan bubbles, etc. in here)
- another attached idea showing huge premium being paid on stocks in relation to gold (alternatively, gold is selling at a historical discount to stocks representing a huge imbalance)
註釋
VIX hovering just at or below historic lows, only 2 other times VIX price has been this low
註釋
Here is the same VIX chart but clearer註釋
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