A Major Storm in the Horizon

Recently we saw new All Time Highs (ATH), the indexes have been on the rise. However there's something in the works. The so called "Fear Index" VIX has been stubbornly increasing its level and for a while it has breached the 20 level. Which is the borderline from a calmed ascending market and a correction.

The level of the correction may go from just an adjustment in the trend, sending the index back to the long term moving averages, like the 50/100. This is not yet a bear market, which can't be forecasted from just the levels we have at this time.

The FED was aggressive with its first interest rate cut, the market is looking forward for margin at a discount and it knows how to ask for it. We'll have to keep an eye in the Fed balance sheet, the bond yield, inflation and unemployment.

The momentum divergences in the upper time frame have been increasing. Higher levels with lower momentum, this is a sign of reversal. So far it's about time for a trend correction, a bear market will be seen if the main moving averages (20, 50) in the Weekly are breached and its support turns into resistance.

Good Trading Everyone !