SalN
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SP500, SPY - The End is near

SP:SPX   標準普爾500指數
SP500             Daily Chart

Did you like my title? "The end is near". BUT NOT YET. I'll explain. First on this daily chart I would like to point out that we dropped a little bit over the last couple weeks. The hidden bearish divergence on the RSI below played out. But as you can also see, we have a larger hidden bullish divergence that has formed. Look at the last hidden bullish divergence and you can see how we made new highs shortly after. Well this divergence is a little bigger. So I do think we will be ramping up hear very soon and I do think we can reach somewhere around the 2500 range (to complete this larger 1st wave) before the larger corrective 2nd wave begins. Yes, only wave 2, not the END. That comes later. So lets look at some possible key events that could trigger the wave 2 correction. (and the correction should be a decent 10% drop). 1st, I do not think the FED will raise rates in May. Even if the market is up to 2500 at that point. The reason being is that I think the fear of the French election will keep the FED at bay. So there is a 2 round vote in France. The first one is April 23rd and the second is May 7th. I think the Brexit and Trump affect will win the day in France and Le Pen will be victorious. But the media wont say that. So that could have a similar affect as Brexit did. And thereby bring a little shock to the Markets. But that wont last long and we will start a hefty larger wave 3 of wave 5.

I will post my Monthly or weekly chart next to show you what I see is happening. This market has structure and it is playing out like I see it.
評論: Monthly Chart

So this monthly chart looks a little cluttered but don't mind that. Its the larger picture that I want you to see. I found a chart of our market (adjusted for inflation) that charts our US market since it started. (Tradingview does not allow me to do this so I will just show a little part of it and explain). As you can see, the 2001 and 2008 corrections were just part of a wave 4 correction. What you do not see is the super huge wave 3 that started in late 1932, after the great depression. The great depression market crash started in 1929 and ended in 1932 before it turned around. If you were able to see the chart that I found, that crash is a text book wave 2. The large wave 3 that ended in late 2000, has a 5 wave structure in it as well. As you can see, wave 4 is also text book. And in my opinion, since we broke out of the corrective zone in May of 2013, we have not looked back since. That breakout confirms to me that we have indeed started the last great wave (wave 5). I guess as we move along, I will hopefully be able to guess what may be the trigger for the greatest market correction in our history. But, before we get to that point, our US markets will fly and possibly double in a relatively short period of time. As Europe collapses, there will be a flight of money to the US markets. Japan will probably be close behind that and fall like a domino. And then the great caboose, the USA will fall. I almost think that it will have something to do with Trump. I feel that he is telling the world bankers to kiss off and they will fight back. If Trump is what he says he is, then he will try to thwart their master plan, which in my opinion is total control. They are already talking about doing away with paper money and make everything digital. They are already testing what can and can't work in Greece. They have seized their money and have placed controls on what the people can get. If you think your pension is safe, forget about it, they can take that too. And the Dollar will be worthless at that point. They already have a new world currency called the SDR (special drawing right). SO without drawing this out any longer, that is why I said in my title, "The End is Near". Make as much money as you can and pay off your debt and maybe buy physical gold and silver. Because when this ship sinks, even your home value will take a 70 - 80 % hit along with the market. Sorry for the doom and gloom but I thought it was important to point out.
Hi, I think the miners continue to struggle and have only rebounded about 40% of the initial decline it experienced after peaking in Feb. 8. I am waiting a peak of miners to buy jdst, but there is no peak till now. I am worried that a new decline is likely to take hold at any time.
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Hi, I think that you are doing a mistake with the French election. Effectively we can see a trend in the World with Brexit, Trump and other people but as you said there will be two round in this election. Miss LE PEN could win the first but she will have all the others competitors in front of her in the second round as the last time for the local and regional vote: result no region and NO PRESIDENCE (this time. It's another question 5 years later). This don't have any influence on your full explanation. Thanks for that. Axeas
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SalN Axeas
@Axeas, thank you. The Le Pen thing is just a guess as to what might be a trigger for a wave 2 correction as I believe the wave 2 correction will occur sometime in April or May. So it could be something else but that was all I could see right now. If France gets another attack right before the election then she or another like her could upset the establishment. Which is why I referred to the Brexit and trump phenomenon.
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