S&P 500 Next Week Expected Move ($132.5)
By definition, a contrarian is going to be early, but in order to be successful, they can’t be too early.
It’s in this small window that greatness exists.
Dramatic increase from last week's $73.5 Expected Move.
We are gonna be a-rockin' next week.
Market Damage Report:
Damage thus far? Mild, it's absolutely mild. We've barely skinned our knee.
(ZB1!) Bonds were eerily silent this last week.
They're still going to run to Bonds if s**t starts to hit the fan.
I find myself in a strange place where I agree with the fundamental argument against bonds, yet my gut, common sense, and charts say otherwise.
The dollar could explode higher.
DXY is the most often overlooked market indicator for me, despite its pervasive significance.
A dollar rally would be a sign of imminent and devastating risk for the marketplace. It looks poised to make that move.
Let's talk candidly about Gamestop (GME)
First of all, these monkeys actually think they're going to destroy the hedge fund managers. You're barely moving the needle.
As a retail trader, you do not stand a chance. A lot of people don't like the fact that they've been restricted by brokerage firms.
When you signed up for your brokerage, you signed a legal document that said your broker dealer has "Fiduciary Responsibility."
I work as a fiduciary. I needed to ask myself, "Are my clients actually capable of handling this stuff?" Now, I tend to agree with the
counter-arguments. I do! If you want to freakin' lose your money, you should be able to lose your money.
But in this case, you have no chance. You have no chance. You see people posting pictures winning $2 million dollars. The only problem is, that guy sacrificed a million people in order for that guy to make that $2 million. People are getting destroyed in here. Just smoked.
youtube.com/watch?v=-DT7bX-B1Mg
The SEC has a new sheriff in town, and they're just looking to make an example of someone.
The broker dealers, they don't talk to each other. You think they're talking to hedge funds? These people do NOT like each other.
Citadel and other brokerages are actually rooting for the retail client. They make their profit on the bid-offer spread. GMEs $10-wide spread has been extremely profitable for them. 600% implied volatility = death to a retail client. It just does. It's David vs. Goliath. It's childish calling hedge funds and brokers evil. In restricting you, they're doing you a favor. I will tell you first-hand that every single person I work with has your best interest put first, period. No if and or buts. Regulators are going to get involved in this now which means more rules and licensure for me.
Clean up your risk folks.
Best,
- RH
It’s in this small window that greatness exists.
Dramatic increase from last week's $73.5 Expected Move.
We are gonna be a-rockin' next week.
Market Damage Report:
Damage thus far? Mild, it's absolutely mild. We've barely skinned our knee.
- All index products broke their expected move --> Broad market sell-off.
- Many of the indicators I follow flipped bearish from neutral.
- You're never going to get capitulation until you start to see correlation.
- VVIX is in Never-Never Land.
(ZB1!) Bonds were eerily silent this last week.
They're still going to run to Bonds if s**t starts to hit the fan.
I find myself in a strange place where I agree with the fundamental argument against bonds, yet my gut, common sense, and charts say otherwise.
The dollar could explode higher.
DXY is the most often overlooked market indicator for me, despite its pervasive significance.
A dollar rally would be a sign of imminent and devastating risk for the marketplace. It looks poised to make that move.
Let's talk candidly about Gamestop (GME)
First of all, these monkeys actually think they're going to destroy the hedge fund managers. You're barely moving the needle.
As a retail trader, you do not stand a chance. A lot of people don't like the fact that they've been restricted by brokerage firms.
When you signed up for your brokerage, you signed a legal document that said your broker dealer has "Fiduciary Responsibility."
I work as a fiduciary. I needed to ask myself, "Are my clients actually capable of handling this stuff?" Now, I tend to agree with the
counter-arguments. I do! If you want to freakin' lose your money, you should be able to lose your money.
But in this case, you have no chance. You have no chance. You see people posting pictures winning $2 million dollars. The only problem is, that guy sacrificed a million people in order for that guy to make that $2 million. People are getting destroyed in here. Just smoked.
youtube.com/watch?v=-DT7bX-B1Mg
The SEC has a new sheriff in town, and they're just looking to make an example of someone.
The broker dealers, they don't talk to each other. You think they're talking to hedge funds? These people do NOT like each other.
Citadel and other brokerages are actually rooting for the retail client. They make their profit on the bid-offer spread. GMEs $10-wide spread has been extremely profitable for them. 600% implied volatility = death to a retail client. It just does. It's David vs. Goliath. It's childish calling hedge funds and brokers evil. In restricting you, they're doing you a favor. I will tell you first-hand that every single person I work with has your best interest put first, period. No if and or buts. Regulators are going to get involved in this now which means more rules and licensure for me.
Clean up your risk folks.
Best,
- RH
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