SPX500 gap with v.slow or no retrace

I'm expecting the market to gap downwards on opening after the weekend. I feel there has been negative feelings over the weekend, especially today (Sunday) and also the date for tomorrow is close to a cycle point on the 20th. Unfortunately I didn't spot this until late friday and missed the trade.

Gaps usually close up but the cycle is quarterly to yearly scale so I don't think it will close up as quickly as you might normally expect.

The other possibility is a gap upwards which could be considered more against the trend... but I haven't seen enough positive re: Ukraine for me to go with that.