S&P 500 new yearly high then pullback until December Fed meeting

2015年11月12日

There are two scenarios here. Either a large pullback lower down to the 1985 area starting on November 12, followed by a shallow ascent until the December Fed meeting. Or a fast (short squeezing) rally until a new yearly high is reached, followed by a slow decline until the important Fed meeting (my main scenario as of now).

Currently the market is in a neutral 50/50 coin flip situation before the close of November 12 shows the next direction. For large players it makes more sense to get higher shorts placed, before the Fed starts the first rate hike after such a long time (which can lead to a downtrend lasting several months). Which is why I'm expecting the rally first before new monthly lows are reached.

Entry 2075
Stop Loss: 2065
Target: 2150

2015年11月12日

註釋

Reversal denied again. Stop loss at 2065 got hit.

With the price very slowly dripping lower and lower this scenario is becoming now more likely. But I wait until after the Yellen speech what happens. So far the price is still testing around the low area from October 27

2015年11月12日

註釋

I should have spend more time researching support/resistance levels. The price dropped down to 2058.1 and bounced back up so far above my 2065 stop loss ...

2015年11月12日

註釋

There is weekly support is around 2060 and the low from October 27 was 2058.1 and today (November 12) it bounced so far off from this 2058.1 low again, therefore enough bulls are still in the market - so far:

2015年11月12日

註釋

The price is bouncing around this support level. So far it looks like accumulation to me (therefore bullish):

2015年11月12日

註釋

This could be a bottom around 2060:

2015年11月12日

註釋

... and the pattern is getting destroyed :/

2015年11月12日

註釋

Here is what happened after the pattern got destroyed to the downside by this tiny bit (as seen on my previous chart):

Step 1: a promising rise, which was a fake out higher
Step 2: a larger dump lower