Overview: on the update of Dec. 21st, I expected that we had formed the bottom for wave (I) of c of Z of (B) and we were inside wave (II).
Update: we formed a lower low on Dec. 22nd, meaning that we were early on the identification of wave (I) bottom.
This is the first time I am not feeling very good about a count that I publish (I mean the hourly count, the general picture has been almost the same the whole 2022), but we just need to give it some time for more clarification. There are reasons for not liking this count, the most important of which is that the structure of wave (I) labeled in this way is not favorable. Also, wave c of (I) was very short for a wave C, wave V of a of (I) was short, and development of a wave (II) as a triangle is not usual.
There are other possibilities that I can see on the chart, but for now I prefer to go with this one that wave (I) bottom is in and we are developing wave (II) of c of Z of (B) as a triangle. Note that it is also possible (lower probability in my opinion) that wave (II) is developing as a flat (in this case, we are in leg C of the flag which should develop as an impulse to the upside).
Update: we formed a lower low on Dec. 22nd, meaning that we were early on the identification of wave (I) bottom.
This is the first time I am not feeling very good about a count that I publish (I mean the hourly count, the general picture has been almost the same the whole 2022), but we just need to give it some time for more clarification. There are reasons for not liking this count, the most important of which is that the structure of wave (I) labeled in this way is not favorable. Also, wave c of (I) was very short for a wave C, wave V of a of (I) was short, and development of a wave (II) as a triangle is not usual.
There are other possibilities that I can see on the chart, but for now I prefer to go with this one that wave (I) bottom is in and we are developing wave (II) of c of Z of (B) as a triangle. Note that it is also possible (lower probability in my opinion) that wave (II) is developing as a flat (in this case, we are in leg C of the flag which should develop as an impulse to the upside).
註釋
Flat playing out:
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