Presidential Elections and the Stock Market vs Gold

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Going back to 1980....Obama's performance ( S&P500             vs Gold             ) was the smallest change over 8 years, which describes the very lackluster economic performance we have seen in the US over the last 8 years.

George Bush Junior had the same performance in 8 years (roughly) as Carter had in 4 years, almost -75%.

I would add that Bush inherited the leverage in the banking system from Clinton where the Gov't allowed banks to lever from 11:1 up to 40:1, thus creating the bubble. Bush cut the leverage back down to 11:1, and in the process, popped the asset-lending bubble. Clearly, it was a much better idea to cut the leverage down slowly over a period of YEARS instead of doing it so fast.

Capacity to lend or borrow is what determines the fate of countries. France was bankrupt in 1974. The world decided to let France borrow money based on the price of gold             being a multiple of the current price and then let gold             float free. So, gold             went from $35 to $800 and France was saved. Banks have the chains. The Gov't, though, sets the length of the chains and how tight they are placed around your neck.

Look back and see on this chart which presidents are widely hailed as successful Presidents... and you can see it is when the stock market goes up versus Gold             .

Reagan +262%, Clinton +299%

There's plenty more observations to be made from this chart, but wanted you to see it fresh from the idea stage where we have been chatting about it in the KEY HIDDEN LEVELS CHAT ROOM. If you have something to add, put your comments down and we can have an interesting history lesson.

Every day in the markets is a new day and new discoveries and patterns make it very interesting indeed.

I hope you have had a good year in the markets and I look forward to putting together my forecast for 2017 for the S&P500             . My last 5 years of predictions have had quite a level of interest and quite a level of accuracy. It's a high standard to maintain.

My best to you,


December 15, 2016 12:16PM EST
評論: I do think this is one of the most interesting charts I have published here at TradingView. My next most favorite is the Fed Chairman pattern that shows what the stock market does in the years after they get appointed. The very high odds of a sideways market over 5 years was an extremely interesting point that no one seemed to be talking about and frankly STILL AREN'T TALKING ABOUT.

Feel free to pass on the link to my charts at Twitter or other places, like LinkedIn or Facebook, and get the conversation going . These are important points to discuss and I look forward to your questions and comments.
評論: I love this chart - to show a very unique way of looking at the stock market... the "relative return" of stocks to gold.

It is Very easy to understand.

If stocks do better than Gold, people like the President.
If gold does better than stocks, people DON'T LIKE the president.

If people want to HIDE THEIR MONEY IN THE GROUND, I don't think that's a vote for the President's ability to lead and to drive growth.

Share this with a friend and invite them to TradingView to read it for themselves. Share your wealth of knowledge and bring a light of awareness and truth to others. That's my way and TradingView's way too.

Tim 9/11/2017 9:17AM EST
Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $20/mo or a discount for a year and join in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
People dont like the President lately in the USA.?
Quick ? - On the daily (1 candle=1day) SPX chart, does each candle represent the trading hours of: 2 a.m to 3:15 p.m central time per the CBOE hours listed on their website?
timwest mailman
@mailman, SPX should be the open at 9:30AM EST - 4:00PM EST.
With the unknown position and logic of Trump at times, i feel it supports the sideways direction less market.
@2use, Choppy sideways seems about right. Trumps will certainly encounter resistance from the party as he tries to push through policies. I think overall Trump is pretty clear about what he wants, but it's hard to get very many things done. Today's news that $F Ford cancelled at $1.5 billion plant in Mexico is certainly good news for Trump. Business is showing Trump respect while Obama has been happy to let jobs leave the US without doing anything to figure out how to keep the investment here in the US.
For now the market is going up eventually it will realize its authenticity like the Trump University degree lol
@jeha30, lmao
@jeha30, I live near NYC and I don't know anyone who tried to get a Trump U. degree. I love that people want to learn and were happy to pay to learn from a very successful real estate investor. I had received the package for Trump U but I wasn't interested. There is so much leverage in real estate with 5% down or 10% down loans (20:1 leverage, or 10:1 leverage) that it can cut both ways. Knowing how to talk the language of the bankers and get them to give you loans was worth it back then. Oh well. I hope this chart provided a UNIQUE INSIGHT into what makes people happy about a President.
resembles a bit a cup and handle lately
Cheers TIm
Merry Xmas and good trading in 17.
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