Updated overview of SP500
Trade Outlook
Look to short at the 2040 zone but don't expect follow-through to the downside. If price falls from there, then great, but there is definitely a possibility of a retest of recent highs at around the 2140 level. If you take a look at price action during the 2000 and 2007-2008 market declines, there was a great deal of bullish pushbacks and ultimately a retest of highs before the fall.
Thoughts
- Market is clearly pricing in the possibility of further stimulus based on the very negative NFP numbers, emerging markets faltering, and serious risks in companies like Glencore and Deutsche Bank.
- General sentiment is leaning bearish and the markets are anticipating when the "music will stop." Reinforcing this jumpiness among market participants are the obvious slowing economic growth numbers and knowing that even neutral or positive numbers in figures like employment are inflated.
-Do you really think institutional investors like those running pension funds or endowment funds are looking to catch knives? Why not wait out this dangerous volatility by securing profits from this spectacular 7 year bull run once the short term contrarian speculators push price up to recent highs? The problem with any bullish move upward is that they will have to bail at a moment's notice once a serious risk event occurs or even price itself starts to crash like on August 20-24. Furthermore, high speed traders will make a serious situation worse by increasing the speed of a price crash. Keep in mind that price will likely rebound with equivalent speed as well, but not as high as it once was.
Best of luck and thank you for you interest :)
Look to short at the 2040 zone but don't expect follow-through to the downside. If price falls from there, then great, but there is definitely a possibility of a retest of recent highs at around the 2140 level. If you take a look at price action during the 2000 and 2007-2008 market declines, there was a great deal of bullish pushbacks and ultimately a retest of highs before the fall.
Thoughts
- Market is clearly pricing in the possibility of further stimulus based on the very negative NFP numbers, emerging markets faltering, and serious risks in companies like Glencore and Deutsche Bank.
- General sentiment is leaning bearish and the markets are anticipating when the "music will stop." Reinforcing this jumpiness among market participants are the obvious slowing economic growth numbers and knowing that even neutral or positive numbers in figures like employment are inflated.
-Do you really think institutional investors like those running pension funds or endowment funds are looking to catch knives? Why not wait out this dangerous volatility by securing profits from this spectacular 7 year bull run once the short term contrarian speculators push price up to recent highs? The problem with any bullish move upward is that they will have to bail at a moment's notice once a serious risk event occurs or even price itself starts to crash like on August 20-24. Furthermore, high speed traders will make a serious situation worse by increasing the speed of a price crash. Keep in mind that price will likely rebound with equivalent speed as well, but not as high as it once was.
Best of luck and thank you for you interest :)
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