SPX500 Short at M5 supply zone due to tariffs uncertainty

4月8日

Market overview and macro outlook

Rise in the equities market mainly due to the possibility of a 90 days postponement of the tariffs
1. What can kill this optimism: A single Trump administration comment otherwise.
2. We've risen by close to 8% from the lows.
3. Until the postponement is confirmed, i don't think there's much upside, thus, the risk is to the upside, and we should be looking for downside trades now

Upcoming news
1. FOMC meeting on Wed - probably to the downside as it should be comments on keeping rates high to combat the tariffs uncertainty
2. US CPI/Unemployment on Thu - TBD
- If high CPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut
- If high unemployment - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut
3. US Core PPI on Fri - TBD
- If high PPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut

Thus, I have a bearish view of the market and look to take Short positions here.

Technical View

At a higher time frame, I want to see price hit 5500 for a short position then.
In the short term of today and tomorrow, I want to see prices hit 5267 for me to take a Short position - there's a Supply zone there from the M5 TF.
SL: 5300 (Above supply zone and a major psychological point)
TP: 5130 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone before the breakout)
Execution
1. Limit order
- SL: 5300 (Above supply zone and a major psychological point)
- TP: 5130 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone before the breakout)
- TF: Close limit order before CPI or PPI reports. If no entry by then

Results of ideas thus far:
Number of trades: 2
WR: 0%
Profit: -1.1R

Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.

4月8日

交易進行

Trade entered. This is a strong move up to my entry area. May hit SL quickly if the momentum of the tariff negotiation hopes sustains

4月8日

交易結束：目標達成

Adjusted TP reached. 3R profit in this trade idea.