看空

End of 2019- Start of 2020 SPX crash

已更新

1. Rsi Divergence
2. On wave 5 (3000,3200, 3450 possible extensions)- 2.62 very veeeery unlikely
3. Watch out on Macroeconomic factors + trade negotiations(china+ EU+ US factors)
4. Last presidential election 2016, market started going down for the period: July 2015-February 2016=> Expecting Market volatility increase starting the summer of 2019- Ending Spring 2020; If supports are broken Spring 2020 asset bubble pop-off.

Expecting Spain and couple of other European economies to start down trending as a sign/foreshadowing a crash in the SPX.

P.S. I didn't mean to make this public, but here it is.

註釋

(First picture is IBEX35-Spanish market reference)

1. MACD cross=> any rate drop in the FED rate may help boost stocks in the short-term, but it will further decrease the yields on 5-10 years
2. Empirical research: 3 month to 5/10 year yield Inversion is quite a successful binary predictor for recessions occurring 3-5 quarters in the future.
3. Initial inversion occurred March 2019 on the 3 month to 5 year T.Bonds yields=> Increasing the probability of a recession for Q1 2020-Q3 2020.

註釋

Obviously NASDAQ is highly correlated to SPX and the analysis is similar.
Corporate buy-back and the trade of debt for equity will cause a crisis.

註釋

Similarly, there can be a repeat of the 2007-2009 pattern, as the global slowdown catches on to the US, swedish krona is expected to rise.

註釋

Zoomed in weekly update. As the chart shows the gray line is the support and the base for any kind of bull rallies. Breaking the gray line can lead to a test of the channel blue line, and if it eventually breaks it, it can lead to a retest of the 200 week moving average(orange line).

As trade tensions rise, markets will start feeling the outcomes once economic data becomes available. If the trade tensions continue throughout the year, there might be a culmination point that will lead to a recession in the autumn.

註釋

Update: How's the Analysis doing so far?

Wave 5: Target #1 Hit(3022)
Target #2(3400) will depend on the US/CHINA DEAL.

Either way it's not looking good for the bulls in the medium term.

_Step_ahead_oftheMarket_

註釋

This update provides a major support to this idea. Kind of angry that I didn't notice this wedge pattern on the SPX monthly earlier, although at this point it's quite certainly confirmed.

Make or break time at the end of 2019.

註釋

Newest update. Depending on the news, could either break out or down of the wedge.

註釋

Deal going through means that Armageddon will be postponed until late 2020, early 2021. At the same time this of course will depend on the outcome of the 2020 elections.

I will keep updating this idea and probably if I have time make a new chart further elaborating some of the points from this chart.