SPY close analysis, 5/1/2023

As expected from old chart levels, boss bears showed up right on time at the 416 level for a second round. We're now below 416 with momentum crossing down in oscillator. I call that confirmation. Sure looks to me like we're on a path downward until we find some support.

My guess is we're headed back to that 411 zone before we can make it into the 420ish zone. Long term, I still think we tap the diagonal supply zone levels above (bullish). But shorter term, bears have their chance here to do something in the next 48hrs and find that level of support.

Expectations for Fed interest rates on Wednesday look baked in. While the market seems to relish in any data excuse to move, I don't really expect much in the way of surprises. Till then I'm slightly bearish bias tomorrow and assuming consolidation/testing for support before some bigger moves are made on Wednesday.