Looking at the daily time frame, there is a case for either a bull or bear outcome.
Bull Case:
1) Green up channel
Observation: All candles consistently close within the channel since 24 March.
Downside: Channel width is very large. 13.5% price swing is not a tight channel to be 100% confident in.
2) Moving Averages (20,50,200)
Observation: Price is currently trading above all averages. Has closed daily above the 20SMA since 6 April. Consistently above the 50SMA since 27 April. One month later on 27 May, it crossed and closed above the 200 SMA. Strong evidence of a long term trend change.
3) Bull Flags
Observation: There has been 2 strong bull flags that played out within the channel. 23 Mar - 17 Apr & 14 May -9 June. These flags occurring within the channel yields more confirmation of the channel having importance in my opinion.
Bear Case:
1) Bear channel
Observation: Bear channel has now formed and held closes since 8 June. Channel width is half as much as bull channel - about 6.25%
Downside: Channel hasn't had much time to form, and its sitting inside the longer bull channel, this could just be a pullback, unless it breaks the bull channel.
2) MACD crossover
Observation: MACD crossover occurred on 11 June and has yet to dip below the zero line. But it also hasnt crossed to a daily buy signal.
3) New bear flag
Observation: Looking since 10 June, we can see a bear flag in the making. The retracement of the flag is deep, but it doesn't seem to me to cancel out the formation.
Bull Case:
1) Green up channel
Observation: All candles consistently close within the channel since 24 March.
Downside: Channel width is very large. 13.5% price swing is not a tight channel to be 100% confident in.
2) Moving Averages (20,50,200)
Observation: Price is currently trading above all averages. Has closed daily above the 20SMA since 6 April. Consistently above the 50SMA since 27 April. One month later on 27 May, it crossed and closed above the 200 SMA. Strong evidence of a long term trend change.
3) Bull Flags
Observation: There has been 2 strong bull flags that played out within the channel. 23 Mar - 17 Apr & 14 May -9 June. These flags occurring within the channel yields more confirmation of the channel having importance in my opinion.
Bear Case:
1) Bear channel
Observation: Bear channel has now formed and held closes since 8 June. Channel width is half as much as bull channel - about 6.25%
Downside: Channel hasn't had much time to form, and its sitting inside the longer bull channel, this could just be a pullback, unless it breaks the bull channel.
2) MACD crossover
Observation: MACD crossover occurred on 11 June and has yet to dip below the zero line. But it also hasnt crossed to a daily buy signal.
3) New bear flag
Observation: Looking since 10 June, we can see a bear flag in the making. The retracement of the flag is deep, but it doesn't seem to me to cancel out the formation.
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