Spy close analysis, 3/10/2023

Crash. Closing anywhere below the old “liquidity magnet / demand zone” and the “peak resistance line” is ultra bearish. I expect max fear in the market Monday open. Bulls only hope is a quick reclaim of 388-389, otherwise momentum could carry us swiftly to the mid-to-high 37X zone. I have 376 as my next bearish target on this chart with an upside target of 394 should a miracle FED decision/statement be made.

Why 376? Fibs. Statistically, fib theory tells us that unless we quickly bounce off the 768 and make it out of the pocket we are in for a full retracement back to 376. This zone happens to be a high timeframe order block as well as many other technical confluence marketing “liquidity.” It's going to be incredibly tough to make it out of this zone for the bulls.

For my trading recap, the yellow circled zone highlighted on Thursday’s session close played out almost perfectly. I actually did try for a long but quickly flipped my plan to shorts, picking up the second dump after seeing a H&S pattern complete on both ES and SPY 5m charts. This market continues to reward nimble decision making and scalping over any sort of swing trading.