SPY - too short time to go short

2020年10月4日

In my humble opinion, 2nd wave of Covid19 compress the time to folds the final 5th wave into 89 bars (top-to-top distance very close correspond to Fibonacci numbers) and stops slightly above 360$ per share. In other words, I don't expect the shorting market crawls up to the price when IV wave end, on the contrary, I expect direct movement at new ATH (truncation or ending diagonal formation are very likely). If this presumption will be violated, in such a case, also counting is invalid and should be revised. When new ATH reap the glory, the significant sale will be followed where 3 possible gradual levels are also marked.

New recounting can be realized like this

however the waves marked 1-5 will not be motive waves, rather B wave of the folding corrective wave (in this time 3-3-X where X is currently unknown wave formation for now leading to long-time short position). More specifically waves 1-3 forms A wave, wave 4 forms B wave and, 5 wave forms C wave of ZigZag formation of lesser degree.

Forecast:
Short time - go long
Long time - go short (in both cases the deep correction is expected)

Please keep in mind, it's not a suggestion, just observation. Any comments are warmly welcome.

2020年10月4日

註釋

A while ago I came across the perfect video (youtube.com/watch?v=BGpJfYJG1v0) about a long-term market forecast created by Glenn Neely, who also predicts a rapid market decline in the near future. More about G. Neely can be found here linkedin.com/in/glenn-neely-a39605

2020年10月4日

註釋

I got a few minutes ago a wise remark about suspicious non-uniformity between the 2nd and 4th wave of PRIMARY (green color) degree waves. The more luscious counting would include the ending of the 5th wave of CYCLE degree (black color) at actual ATH. However, under this presumption between the end of the IV wave and actual ATH, five wave impulse of lesser degree should exist regardless of which of the above two mentioned scenarios (i.e five wave impulse or B-wave correction) is really valid (if any). I post a screenshot of how the counting has been realized: Please, give me feedback, if any other alternative will catch your eye. I look forward to your ideas.

2020年10月5日

註釋

After a small talk with my friend, we believe that following counting is also valid in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle and non of the key rules are forcibly violated. Please be careful, the market can go up or down and still remain in one of the forecasting scenarios because, if this counting turns out to be valuable we are already in deep correction regardless of whether the I-IV (black curve, cycle degree) formation is really the impulse or B-wave of 3-3-X corrections. In such a case, the running triangle or running/expanded flat) can be forecasted very likely.