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September Update for TATS1: Tristan's Algorithmic Trading System

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500
52 0 0
The month of August brought some of the largest drops and largest gains that we have seen since the last crash in 2007. This very high volatility should be a warning sign that people are being nervous about the direction of the market.

This bull market has risen quickly for several years, but momentum has stalled for several months, and most importantly, the uptrend line (dark blue) has been broken. This broken uptrend, along with the MACD SELL signal, have made the risks of holding stocks much greater than the potential reward from holding stocks.

Someone pointed out that SPY             could be inside a multi-year rising channel , which I have added in Pink. If this turns out to be true, there is the potential that SPY             could fall all the way down to $85, which would be a fall of 60% from the peak (which is still a 56% fall from current prices).

There are more optimistic outcomes as well, such as a drop down to the light blue line ($155) which was the top of the two previous bull markets. This would be a 27% drop from the peak (which is a 21% below current prices).

TATS1 is still giving a SELL signal. Be careful out there!

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