March Replay...

➤ Equities decided to pause for the time being before the next BIG move.

➤ I remain 100% in cash waiting for the next entry signal. 0% exposure means a wait and see approach with no directional view for the time being. The maximum exposure is +/- 200%, the level of highest conviction.

➤ I've harped on this a few times, but the March experience is back on my mind! Instead of having a simple upthrust action as in March, I think we have instead seen a more complicated upthrust play out. An upthrust action is when the price looks to have overcome resistance but fails to sustain above it. Often, after failing, prices keep moving down further.

➤ Due to the more sustained nature of this potential upthrust, I would also expect the market will have sufficient strength to re-test the high of the upthrust but end with a LOWER HIGH (LH). The LH is the last gasp of the Bulls.

➤ Conclusion: Staying neutral for now but the Bearish overtones cannot be ignored.