So won't over complicate this. Ranges and probs are in the chart above. These are not modified probabilities but I did make some "overall" modifications to the probability assessments. Namely laxing the parameters the system looks for. This is to give me more "exact" matches than I was getting before.
IN theory it would increase the functionality but decrease the reliability. However, it seems to perform at or above expectations in back-testing so I think we'll go with this for now.
Probs based on SPX not SPY, but the TPs for SPX are pretty much identical in conversion to SPY.
SPY has equally bullish probs its just 1:1 vs 0:1.
We do have some more substantial news coming out next week, namely Powell testifying to senate on Tuesday at 10 am. Will be wild I am sure. I absolutely can't wait to trade that day (sarcasm).
We'll see how the week plays out and where 99s fall etc. etc. IF we gun right for these high targets right off the bat, it will be a little on the suspish side so caution would be needed there. Will also be interested if we have another good 99 setup like we had this week. But now that my faith has been re-instilled in them and it gave me a great setup last week that I completely blew, I suspect it won't be so kind two weeks in a row.
Let's take a minute to lament the missed setup on DIA:
Hopefully someone else took it for me, because I did talk about it as it was happening on here.
And SPY:
Assuming I were to double down.
Frustrating.
Anyway, in terms of the Monday probs, prospectively its 50:50. Prospectively it looks like we are primed for some pullback but that there should be a lot of bullish enthusiasm intra-day. Bullishness to Bearishness is 9:15 bullish and 5:15 bearish. SO you know it should just be a frenzied, fomo filled buying parade.
Prospective targets for Monday are:
Bull
1. 404.80
2. 406.27
3. 407.74
Bear
1. 403.07
2. 401.32
3. 399.57 (which would put it in the low weekly range so really don't expect this to happen).
I think that is it, nothing really interesting.
Hopefully you all had a great week and will have a great week this upcoming week as well!
Safe trades everyone!
IN theory it would increase the functionality but decrease the reliability. However, it seems to perform at or above expectations in back-testing so I think we'll go with this for now.
Probs based on SPX not SPY, but the TPs for SPX are pretty much identical in conversion to SPY.
SPY has equally bullish probs its just 1:1 vs 0:1.
We do have some more substantial news coming out next week, namely Powell testifying to senate on Tuesday at 10 am. Will be wild I am sure. I absolutely can't wait to trade that day (sarcasm).
We'll see how the week plays out and where 99s fall etc. etc. IF we gun right for these high targets right off the bat, it will be a little on the suspish side so caution would be needed there. Will also be interested if we have another good 99 setup like we had this week. But now that my faith has been re-instilled in them and it gave me a great setup last week that I completely blew, I suspect it won't be so kind two weeks in a row.
Let's take a minute to lament the missed setup on DIA:
Hopefully someone else took it for me, because I did talk about it as it was happening on here.
And SPY:
Assuming I were to double down.
Frustrating.
Anyway, in terms of the Monday probs, prospectively its 50:50. Prospectively it looks like we are primed for some pullback but that there should be a lot of bullish enthusiasm intra-day. Bullishness to Bearishness is 9:15 bullish and 5:15 bearish. SO you know it should just be a frenzied, fomo filled buying parade.
Prospective targets for Monday are:
Bull
1. 404.80
2. 406.27
3. 407.74
Bear
1. 403.07
2. 401.32
3. 399.57 (which would put it in the low weekly range so really don't expect this to happen).
I think that is it, nothing really interesting.
Hopefully you all had a great week and will have a great week this upcoming week as well!
Safe trades everyone!
評論:
I forgot to put the reference target for next week its 404.88.
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