SPY/SPX: Guidance Forward

2024年8月18日

Its been a hot minute since I have shared my thoughts/analysis.
So it was time for an update!

Leave your questions and comments below, take care!

2024年8月19日

註釋

So 550 off the bat was a no go,
but as was foretold by the sacred probability modelling functions, today was indeed hella bullish haha. RIP the goat that was sacrificed to get this knoweldge ⛧⛧.

I added long some short dated calls for the move to 560.
The initial bullishness does change my assessment slightly. And not the bullishness per se but the fact that we now have a weekly high prob on SPY at 552. So my best guess is that one of these catalysts is not going to be interpreted to positively.
Anyone's guess which one!

Safe trades!

2024年8月22日

註釋

May see a slump premarket tomorrow with the employment numbers.
But outlook remains very bullish intraday.

SO uh, yeah. Up we continue to go! For now.

2024年8月22日

註釋

In light that we have broken down from the ascending channel, it now makes it more likely we see the high prob in the 552 - 553 range.

However, we have Powell speaking tomorrow which generally tends to be a bit of a bullish catalyst.
Dip buying remains strong but at this point its very clear breakdown.

Lookout below for 552 then 550.
Dip buying remains crazed and I think good chance we get bought up there unless something fundamentally changes between now and then.

2024年8月23日

註釋

Today is a great example of why I have made the decision to always remain net long, regardless of how bearish things look.

Ridiculous market I know, but what are you going to do.