$SPY range $479-$529, the path to the top (and bear market)

已更新

looks to be showing signs of weakness here. Thinking that we could see the first large decline of the year into one of the support levels below $479-$495. Breaking the trend line would be the trigger.

If that happens and we do get a low, then I think we'll have one final rally to the upper resistance levels between $525-$530.

Another possibility, is we just continue upwards to the top resistance levels and then decline after. Idea of a range is you want to buy the lows (supports on chart) and sell the highs (resistances chart).

Regardless of the path we take, we're nearing a top in the market and after we hit those top levels, I expect a large decline lower (one that takes us past the prior 2022 lows).

Ultimately looking for SPY to reach the $280-300 level by the end of 2024. But let's save that analysis after we see what happens in this range.

註釋

Thinking the second possibility is playing out. $529-530 trigger short.

註釋

Changing my mind. Market showing weakness. Would make sense to get the pullback here and then one final pump to $529-530 for the top.

註釋

Let's see if we get that down day tomorrow. Would make sense to get in the $502-508 region before a bounce.

註釋

Okay, I'm bullish here. I think there's a possibility price can go all the way up to 550ish region over the next 2-3 weeks. Let's see.

註釋

The move higher was sold into and now we're at the first support level on the chart. Going to start looking for longs again like in the original idea. Think we see the final move higher into $530 region to mark the top.

註釋

Now I think we see one more downside leg to the bottom support before we get that move up into $530.

註釋

Bought some OTM puts for 5/17 anticipating that move down to the lower support. Let's see.

註釋

Welp haven't gotten that reversal yet. I'll add more puts at the upper resistance (almost there) with a longer expiration tomorrow. Likely out to September.

註釋

Bought 300 contracts of 491P for 5/31

註釋

Also bought 100contracts of 270P for 9/20

註釋

Still haven't gotten a reversal but we're at the top. Think tomorrow is likely the turning point. A few more points higher before a massive reversal back down to the lower support. Think most people will be caught off guard (likely to start Wednesday-Friday).

Adding more puts tomorrow.

註釋

Added more puts today, I bought some 5/24 525P and took profit when they went to 100% gain before close, so riding some free until Friday.

註釋

As of now, the move today increased the chances of the move down taking place. If it does happen, I expect the bottom to be on 5/29. I'll likely close out my put positions on that date.

註釋

I'll likely add a new position in the morning: for 5/31. Will look at what happens with price action w/ NVDA earnings pop premarket and at open.

註釋

Took that position at open. Up 25% already

註釋

I'm out of all my put positions. Reasoning, I think we chop until Wednesday and then go down again on Thursday.

Will reopen puts next week on Wednesday.

註釋

Opened some 6/14 $505 puts at open

註釋

The market top is in once NVDA hits $1178.

註釋

Thought we'd get a pop today or tomorrow up to $529, but the market has another idea. With that close, I know many people are expecting higher tomorrow with the PCE print, but to me the price action looks bearish. I don't think we get that pop anymore.

I think we most likely just continue down here.

Taking things day by day... Let's see what happens in the morning.

註釋

Still chopping. Don't think the sustained move down comes until Wednesday now.

註釋

Bought 6/14

註釋

Watching the ECB rate decision as the catalyst for downside tomorrow. If you watched how the 10yr traded today when Canada announced cuts, it sold off quickly only to come back and rebound.

To me, that was the warning signal.

If the ECB cuts tomorrow before we do, I think there's a possibility that the US10yrY and the dollar could go on a massive move (yields up, dollar up) and take down markets. Hence why I've been posting bearish charts throughout the day.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

註釋

I added 534P for Monday expiration at open as my biggest position and some lottery tickets $515 for Monday as well.

Current thesis is that we see the full move play out today and tomorrow. Obviously, it would be a crazy "black swan" event if it were to happen, but that's what the chart is telling me.

Signs are there. Selloff intensifying, NVDA dragging the market down (sub $1100 and all hell breaks lose).

If this doesn't play out, there are a ton of catalysts next week for lower prices too. I'm holding puts here. Will make decisions to cut puts only if I don't see the move I'm expecting play out tomorrow.

註釋

Ended up getting back into cash on the puts I took today. Will relook at them tomorrow.

Only closed because I have a lot of exposure to puts that are longer dated and puts on other assets besides SPY and didn't get a lower close.

That said, you can tell there's a lot of selling going on underneath the surface. Still think we see downside.

The move would need to play out by 6/14 IMO if we're going to see downside to my target of $478.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

註釋

Closed the ITM moneys (still have the lottery tix).

註釋

Relooked at the charts this afternoon and I'm leaning more towards Monday-Tuesday timeframe for a selloff, if it's going to happen. I will exit puts for a loss if it doesn't play out by then.

I have a custom indicator on my chart that gives you sell signals on different timeframes. I have a 2D sell signal that was triggered on May 8th, which is what originally made me cautious. That sell signal triggered in 2022 at the top as well.

I calculated how long it takes for the sell signal to play out and it was 31 days from the trigger. Looked at multiple charts where there were sell signals and it was about that same timeframe, which would calculate to Monday/Tuesday.

I don't necessarily like sharing my options strategy because I'm taking an extremely risky bet on the downside w/ my short dated options. If I were to open up new puts, I think taking them out to September or January is the safest.

I do think we're at the top of the market and this move down will mark the first leg or a larger correction. More on that here:

$SPY market top? 50%+ correction incoming?

註釋

Think it's likely we see $536.25 or so at some point today. If we get up there, that's where I'll add my in the money put position back. Will likely take Wednesday expiration instead of Monday for them.

I think that we do see a hard reversal off of that level. Maybe even some selling into end of the day.

Again, if we're going to see downside, likely to happen by the 14th.

註釋

Welp, the market didn't like that NFP print and that upside level $536.25 got tagged when the print came out, rejected and is now down. Gotta see how this trades once the market opens.

I have exposure to a lot of puts, would be happy if this continues down, or if it bounces up, will add.

Yields way higher after that print. Can't imagine the market stays up here for much longer.

註釋

Thought that level got hit in premarket but it looks like it actually fell short by $.25 or so. Looking for that as the target high still to flip short.

註釋

There we go, bought 8 SPY 534P for 6/12 for $2.50

註釋

Got one more in at $2.44 fill. That should mark the top. Now let's see what happens.

註釋

That might've been the perfect entry *fingers crossed*

註釋

There's the turn. Expecting heavy selling into close. Let's see. That should setup a down move next week.

註釋

Ended the day with a spinning top candle. Let's see what next week brings.

Hope you all have a great weekend.

註釋

I've been watching price action today not really making any new trades as price action has been really choppy. As of now, holding all of my put positions.

Started the morning up 50% and now slightly down on the 6/12 534P. Kind of wish I had taken profits at open, but going to keep holding them...

Something is going on underneath the surface of the market and I'm not sure what yet.

But TLT is down big (puts working there up 200%), the dollar is rising and KRE broke down from a H&S. It makes no sense that the market would be up with all of these forces going against it. That is what is keeping me in my put position. Maybe some news happens tomorrow or maybe it's anticipating something the fed will say Wednesday/Thursday.

Will update if anything changes.

註釋

Ended up closing at a small loss on the 6/12 534P. Will take another crack at it tomorrow. Think there's risk of a pop higher tomorrow, so would rather take in the money puts with a longer dated expiration than take chances on further decay.

註釋

There's a possibility of going up to $537 tomorrow morning. Despite that, still have a bearish bias. I have a hard time seeing the market going higher here in any sort of a sustained trend with bonds selling off, the dollar rising, etc.

Everyone has been conditioned to be max long going into FOMC meetings and I have a feeling that this one isn't going to have a bullish reaction.

We shall see. Last update for the day.

註釋

In hindsight should've held, but all good. Should be a big bounce now. That's what I wanted to avoid. Going to add some 8/16 510P if we get up to 536.25ish area, want to go less risky on the next buys.

註釋

Ended up buying SPY 07/19/2024 500.00 P here

註釋

Could get that push higher to that upper target now. $536.25 would be the target if it breaks resistance here.

註釋

And there it is. Good place to take puts.

註釋

There is a possibility it gets all thew ay up to the top of the channel at $537.58, but it should reverse quickly should it get up there.

註釋

Looks to be rejecting here. I'm done entering new puts...

Let's see where the move down takes us.

註釋

Initial CPI reaction is positive. One thing that's interesting to me across assets I looked at this morning is that the move brought us right into resistance across many different assets I watch, and it doesn't look to me like price will continue higher.

I could be wrong here, but that's what I'm noticing.

Maybe we see a reversal sometime today? I have a pivot on the next candle starting at 7AM or 10AM, depending on what timeframe I look at.

I'll be traveling through next week so will not be able to do update as frequently.

Happy trading to all.

註釋

Well we got a reversal this morning. Vix starting to react to. Let's see if selling picks up throughout the day. I'm currently in the same positions. $500 7/19. Still down around 30% on that after yesterday's move.

Also picked up 6/17 542P at open. up around 100% on that. Will likely take profits on that and let the rest ride.