2019 seemed quite bullish, but comparing S&P constituents by size shows a clear divergence year to date:
- Large caps (blue)
SPY are in an up-trend
- Mid caps (grey)
IJH are sideways.
- But small caps (orange)
IJR are in a downtrend ever since 2018 (lower highs & lows).
Not to say we're on the verge of a correction, but this shows that risk appetite (= smaller caps) is shrinking, not a sign of a healthy bull market. Perhaps this says we'll be in a sideways market for a while (months, years?), until risks shrink a bit. How to play this? Ideas:
- Avoid being too "one-sided"
- take profits when available (to avoid them turning into losses)
- many occasions will happen to accumulate quality names. So don't worry if you miss this or that awesome stock, another chance will come down the road. Just wait for some future Trump tweet ;-)
- get "time on your side": get paid to wait, either via options strategies or holding quality dividend paying stocks.
My take is we get another dip down later, perhaps as low as in Dec 2018 or lower. But until then don't hold your breath. Markets will have wild up & down swings, so be prepared to play both sides.
- Large caps (blue)
- Mid caps (grey)
- But small caps (orange)
Not to say we're on the verge of a correction, but this shows that risk appetite (= smaller caps) is shrinking, not a sign of a healthy bull market. Perhaps this says we'll be in a sideways market for a while (months, years?), until risks shrink a bit. How to play this? Ideas:
- Avoid being too "one-sided"
- take profits when available (to avoid them turning into losses)
- many occasions will happen to accumulate quality names. So don't worry if you miss this or that awesome stock, another chance will come down the road. Just wait for some future Trump tweet ;-)
- get "time on your side": get paid to wait, either via options strategies or holding quality dividend paying stocks.
My take is we get another dip down later, perhaps as low as in Dec 2018 or lower. But until then don't hold your breath. Markets will have wild up & down swings, so be prepared to play both sides.
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。