due for a pull back?

9月20日

10 years ago today the market started a move down that was 10% and lasted 20 days. this might seem insignificant but that was the biggest move down of that year.



Below are some rules to this game as explained by gann.

The stock market moves in 10-year cycles, which is worked out in 5-year cycles -- a 5-year cycle up and a 5 year cycle down.

Rule 1: Bull or bear campaigns do not run more than 3 to 3 1/2 years up or down without a move of 3 to 6 months or one year in the opposite direction. Many campaigns culminate in the 23rd month, not running out the full two years. Watch the weekly and monthly charts to determine whether the culmination will occur in the 23rd or 24th month of the move, or in the 34 to 35, 41 to 42, 49 to 60, 67 to 72, or 84 to 90th months.

Rule 2: A Bull campaign runs five years; 2 years up, 1 year down, and 2 years up, completing a 5-year cycle. The end of a 5-year campaign comes in the 59th or 60th months. Always watch for the change in the 59th month.

Rule 3: A Bear cycle runs five years down. First move 2 years down, then 1 year up and 2 years down completing the 5-year down swing.

Rule 4: Add ten years to any top and it will give you another top of a 10 year cycle with about the same average fluctuations.

Rule 5: Add ten years to any bottom and it will give you the next bottom of the 10-year cycle and of the same kind of a year and about the same average fluctuations.

Rule 6: Bear campaigns run out in 7-year cycles, or 3 years and 4 years from any complete bottom. From any complete bottom of a cycle first add 3 years to get the next bottom; then add 4 years to get bottom of 7year cycle.

Rule 7: From any complete top add three years to get the next top; then add three years to the first top, which will give the second top. Add four years to the second top to get the third and final top of a 10-year cycle.

Rule 8: Add five years to any top, will give the next bottom of a five-year cycle with about the same average fluctuations. In order to get tops of a 5-year cycle, add five years to any bottom and it will give the next top with the same average fluctuations. 1917 bottoms of a big bear campaign - add five years gives 1922 top of a minor bull campaign. Why do I say 'Top of a Minor Bull Campaign'? 1919 was top - add five years to 1919, gives 1924 as bottom of a 5-year Bear cycle. Refer to Rule 2 and 3, which will tell you that a Bull or Bear campaign never runs more than two years in the same direction.
The Bear campaign from 1919 was down two years - 1920 and 1921: therefore, we can only get a 1-year rally in 1922; then two years down - 1923 and 1924, which completes the 5-year Bear cycle. Now, look back to 1913 and 1914 and you will see that 1923 and 1924 must be Bear years to complete the 10-year cycle from the bottoms of 1913 and 1914. Then note 1917 bottom of a Bear year, add seven years and it gives 1924 also as bottom of a Bear cycle.

Rule 9: How to make up Annual Forecasts for any year. Take ten years back and the future year will run very close to the last 10-year cycle. For instance -1932 will run like 1902, 1912, and 1922.

There is a major cycle of 30 years, which runs out three ten-year cycles. The 10-year cycle back from the present and the 20-year cycle have the most effect on the future. But in completing the 30-year cycle, it is best to have 30 years past records to check up to make up a future forecast. For instance: In order to make up my 1922 Forecast, I check 1892, 1902, and 1912, and watch for minor variations in monthly moves. But I know that 1922 will run closest to 1912. However, some stocks will run close to the fluctuations of 1892 and 1902. Remember each stock works from its own base or from its own tops and bottoms, and not always according to Average tops and bottoms [by 'Averages,' Gann means stock indices, such as the Dow or S&P500]. Therefore, judge each stock individually and keep up weekly and monthly charts on them.

Rule 10: Extreme Great Cycles. There must always be a major and a minor, a lesser and a greater, a positive and a negative; that is why stocks have three important moves in a 10-year cycle, two tops three years apart and the next one four years. This works again the five years moves, 2 years up and 1 year down, then 2 years up - two major and one minor move. The smallest complete cycle or workout in a market is five years, and 10 is a complete cycle. Five times ten equals 50, which is the greatest cycle. At the end of a Great Cycle of 50 years, extreme high and low prices occur. Go [then?] over past records and you can verify this.

The number '7' is the basis of time, and a panick occurs and depression in the stock market every seven years, which is extreme and greater than the three-year decline. Note 1907, 1917, etc. Seven times seven is fatal, which makes 49 years, and causes extreme fluctations in the 49th to 50th year. Remember that you must begin with bottoms or tops to figure all cycles, whether major or minor. Extreme fluctuations also occur at the end of a 30-year cycle as you can see by going back 30 to 50 years.

Rule 11: Monthly moves can be determined by the same rule as yearly; i.e., add three months to a bottom, then add four, making seven, to get minor bottoms and reaction points. But remember in a Bull market a reaction may only last two or three weeks; then the advance is resumed. In this way, a market may continue up for twelve months without breaking a monthly bottom. In Big up swing a reaction will not last over two months, the third month being up, the same rule as in yearly cycle - two down and the third up. This same rule applies in Bear markets -rallies not lasting more than two months. Most moves run out in six to seven weeks. Seven days in a week, and seven times seven making 49 days, a fatal turning point. Always watch your annual trend and consider whether you are in a bear or Bull market. Many times when in a Bull year, with the monthly chart showing up, a stock will react two or three weeks, then rest three or four weeks, going into new territory and advancing six to seven weeks more. Always consider whether or not your big time limit has run out before judging a reverse move, and do not fail to consider your indications on time both from main tops and bottoms.

Rule 12: Daily Charts: The daily swing runs on the same rules as yearly and monthly cycles, but of course it is only a minor part of them. Important daily changes occur every seven and ten days. During a month natural changes in trend occur around the 6th to 7th, 9th to 10th, 14th to 15th, 19th to 20th, 23rd to 24th, 29th to 31st. These minor moves occur in accordance with tops and bottoms of individual stocks. Watch for a change in Trend 30 days from last top or bottom. This is very important. Then watch for changes 60, 90, 120 days from tops or bottoms. 180 days, or six months, is very important and sometimes marks changes for greater moves. Also the 9th and 11th months from tops and bottoms should be watched for important minor and often major changes.

A daily chart gives the first short change, which may run for seven to ten days, the Weekly the next important changes in trend, and the month the strongest. Remember weekly moves run three to seven weeks; monthly 2 to 3 months or more, according to the yearly cycle, before reversing.

It is important to note whether a stock is making higher or lower bottoms each year. For instance, if a stock has made a higher bottom each year for five years, then makes a lower than previous year, it is a sign of a reversal and may mark a long down cycle. The same rule applies in stocks that are making lower tops for a number of years in a Bear market.

Study all the instructions and rules I have given you. Read them over several times, as each time they will become clearer to you. Study the charts and work out the rules in actual practice, as well as on past performance. In this way you will make progress and will realize and appreciate the value of my method of forecasting.