SPY - 1 Hour Short

SPY – 1H Technical Breakdown (Short Bias)

Price action on SPY has recently traded into a clearly defined higher-timeframe supply zone, where prior bearish order flow originated. The current structure shows signs of exhaustion after a liquidity sweep above recent swing highs, which likely triggered breakout entries and stop-loss clusters — a common precursor to reversal.

We’ve observed a loss of momentum as price consolidates beneath this supply zone, signaling inefficient buying and a potential shift in control from buyers to sellers. The rejection from this zone aligns precisely with the projected schematic path, reinforcing the short bias and supporting the hypothesis of a distribution phase.

The anticipated move targets the mid-550s, a region marked by prior accumulation and unmitigated demand, making it a logical zone for price to seek out resting liquidity.

🔹 Key Technical Confluences:
Entry from a confirmed supply zone

Sweep of prior high followed by internal weakness

Structure showing early lower highs and compression beneath resistance

Market currently following the projected schematic path outlined in advance

🛡️ Risk Parameters:
Stop-loss is placed conservatively above the supply zone highs to account for further probing

Take-profit aligned with prior demand and structural inefficiencies

Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): Estimated 3:1+, offering a highly asymmetric return profile

This is a tactically planned short with strong technical backing. As long as price respects current structure, we maintain bearish conviction until the 555–560 zone is tested or invalidation occurs above the supply.