SPY: What next?

已更新

Sorry for the congestion and being repetitive at the end showing you what I already showed you haha. I have really bad hay fever and its throwing me for a loop!
Allergies suck!

Anyway, these are my thoughts.
Not advice.
Safe trades!

註釋

Oh man,
With this Biden news we are bouncing next week.

This is the immediate TP using ES that I would expect us to snag and find resistance at:

註釋

Hey guys,
There is a high prob on the week on SPY at 556,
So we can expect a retracement of the 556 level.
As you can see the PA is choppy. Sentiment remains bearish but with the bullish target it translates to really whipsawy PA.
But verdict being you're okay to be long for a retrace to the 556 range. Just be careful because we do have major catalysts this week!

註釋

So I exited my puts on Monday, don't wanna risk theta decay but still in short on the SPXS because this hasn't even been able to retrace my fill zone.

Did take a long position to the high prob weekly target I shared with you guys, 556. I exited those longs today.

Obviously it looks incredibly bearish. The pattern identification stuff identified 2 similar setups, both lead to a slight rebound and then capitulation into a lower low. So let's see. I will check again after market closes with the new developments in PA.

Overall things are looking pretty bearish, but to be fair to the incessant bulls, it doesn't mean anything with major catalysts coming up this week.

Volume remains a problem:

Those are the volume flows on tech and S&P from EOD yesterday.
Being below the 1 trading year SMA is a problem. It leads to what I call price drift, which is just aimeless movement in price based on who is more present. Yesterday for S&P it was bulls, for QQQ bears. Today I won't know till after close.

In order for decisive continuation, we will need to see a bullish or bearish volume spike to at least the SMA for a continuation to happen. Else we will continue to drift.

Those are my thoughts for now.
Thanks and safe trades everyone!

註釋

Daily volume stats, sellers took control both on SPY and QQQ.
Reran ARIMA with the past 2 days of data added and still has both SPY and QQQ downtrending.

Here is QQQ:

ARIMA snags QQQ has tagging 472 within the next 5 trading days.

And SPY:

548 within the next 5 trading days.

Outlook for tomorrow is quite bearish according to projections, so let's see!

註釋

Careful being too quick to short today as we are opening towards the lower 95% level. This means that there really is only a 5% to 1% chance of closing down here.
It won't matter AS much if we see panic selling/conviction coming in because there are is still a lot of room on the weekly levels. BUT, with the low volume and price drift lately, this can be a problem and initiatie a bounce.

註釋

Never advise catching a falling knife, but QQQ has snagged its first monthly low target and is attempting to break out of its intra-day channel:

Expect a bit of a bounce here.

註釋

See the power of a well programmed, ARIMA model?
This was the ARIMA I shared in the video and now look at where we are.

More downside to come though I do anticipate an attempt at bouncing tomorrow with a potential gap up.

As of now its just sailing towards the 537 target and we'll reassess then.

Safe trades everyone!

註釋

Also regarding the question do we see 537 this week,

Probably, next low target on the week is 539 followed by 535.

And some very nice volume analytics:

註釋

Well well well, didn't honestly expect it to gap down, but I'll take it.
Nice fall through the bearish threshold (Teal line).
We are inches away from the High prob (92%) target at 537 and some change.
Failure to reclaim the bear condition puts it at a pretty confident hit today.

From there will need to see what it does. I will be trailing at this target as there are no further bearish high prob targets and this is still a bull market.

註釋

One final update and then I am going to just close off this post.

Its trying to break over the bear condition, if it does your immediate target is 543.40.

Safe trades!

註釋

Andddd 537. ✋🎤

註釋

I'm long now SPYU shares.
Will add if it goes down.

Don't get me wrong, this can still be a reversion to the cubic mean in the 520s. But I think from here, we should see at least some retracement at min.

註釋

Based on how this closed, likely is going to be a mean reversion to the cubic mean in the 520s.
Got trail stopped on SPYU but was still decent.

A little surprised that it fell back down with such hard support at the high prob target, but not entirely shocked.

This is the final update for this idea. Going to just move on next week with new idea. However, that isnèt to say this idea is over. Just that I donèt like excessive updates on single ideas so I am done with this. haha

safe trades everyone!