$SPY hold of $580-588 region sets up long to $614-630

1月22日

SPY looks like it's formed a low for the short term when it failed the H&S pattern.

From here, I think it's likely that we fall back into the $580-588 to scare everyone into thinking there's more downside, but if that region holds, it'll set up a trigger long all the way up to the $614-$630 region.

I think the move higher should play out by mid-February (again if that $580-588 region holds). If it fails, then we're looking back down at the lower support level $545.

If we do end up going higher, I think that $630 region will be the short term top and it'll set up a move down to $545 before we move higher.

1月22日

註釋

Think it's more likely that we see a decline to $598 this week and then likely retest the highs. Further down next week.

1月24日

註釋

Welp start of a decline into close. Part of me wonders whether we hold at $580-588 or if we test $545 first before going to $630. Let's see.

As of now, I'm thinking decline into next week. Bounce into Feb 14, then position short into mid-late march.

Let's see as price action unfolds.

1月27日

註釋

Looking for a hold of $588-580 to trigger the long. Thinking we may only go to $614-615 from here.

1月27日

註釋

We likely bottom tomorrow. Let's see.

1月28日

註釋

Yesterday's low at $590 may have been the low. If it is, I could see price going to $614 next.

1月28日

註釋

Now I'm torn. I could actually see a sweep of the lows happening pre-fomc tomorrow and hitting my lower target(s).

Then rally after.

1月29日

註釋

I think it's less likely we see a huge move down today now based on price action. Possible, but not my base case. I think more likely is we retest the $598-600 region then continue higher.

1月29日

註釋

As planned... am long into next week.

2月3日

註釋

Welp my long options will likely get killed this week but the majority of my options are in volatility. Will likely sell all of my UVXY tomorrow if SPY gets to $588-580 and then flip long again for the real bounce. Then I expect the final move down towards the end of the month into March, so will hedge again towards mid Feb.

2月3日

註釋

Doesn't look like we're going to get lower yet haha this market is nuts. Luckily kept all of my long options- positioned for either direction, think we may see a massive squeeze higher though before more downside. Maybe $614? Dunno not going to add anything, just going to watch price action.

2月7日

註釋

Still thinking we see $614-615 next week at some point, then fall after.

2月13日

註釋

Now not as sure we see higher. I could also see us just rolling over. The next two days will be telling. I started buying lots of UVXY today in anticipation of a move down.

2月13日

註釋

Just broke resistance, should it hold, then we should see $614 area by next Thursday.

2月21日

註釋

That was likely it for the run. $613 top. Now let's see if we get downside from here.

2月28日

註釋

Still think we go to the target below. Losing $576 is the trigger.