More choppiness waiting for the inflation reading?

2022年6月29日

Before the last inflation reading we had a choppy week with the market waiting for the numbers to react. As we saw the inflation increasing we had a huge selloff leading to the FOMC.

Is this movie playing again this week until the next reading?
If so, I see the possible scenarios:

- If the inflation increases the market should drop until 3500 in SPX and price-in the next rate hike, which converges with the middle of the main uptrend channel in green and where the current downtrend channel has its floor.

- If the inflation diminishes the market might start rallying into the FOMC in anticipation of a dovish hike and, if confirmed, test the upper bound of the main descending channel and/or the 200 weekly MA with the H&S formation complete.

2022年7月9日

註釋

Although we haven't done it in the predicted choppy way, we arrived back to the predicted level for the inflation week.

Are we chopping from here on until Wednesday or we'll try to tag the channel/50MA?

Is the market playing fool with the bulls and accumulating money for the next leg down?

From the previous pre-inflation numbers top we had a 12.89% decline until rallying back to 390s. A repeated 12.80%ish decline will put us in the 3400s zone. In case we drop 10%ish we're down to the 3500s level.

Coming soon, in a theater close to you, the next episode of "Will it go up, or will it go down?" 🍿🍿🍿

2022年7月12日

註釋

Seems like the same move started today. Are we gaping down and start dumping tomorrow?

2022年7月20日

註釋

Quite interesting this move. Was the CPI already priced-in or this is a double bottom structure being formed and we'll retest the lows after earnings/fomc?