I guess these are my levels.... BUT...

2022年5月17日

Which seem pretty universal and uncontroversial to me.

Green is next 2 weeks' upside, yellow are caution zones but still potentially bullish (for example, could dip down ~1% tomorrow and still be bullish) with an extreme upside around $460. And because everyone likes to play 'how low can it go', I have the bearish zone capped around $360 if we have no upside action whatsoever and just dive from here. Otherwise, we're currently predicting with low confidence the next leg down will be after the first week of June.

But, unfortunately, I honestly and personally don't know/don't have a plan on how to profit from this setup. Risk currently remains too high no matter what happens. (Low confidence simply means that its one of the most likely scenarios currently but there are so many assumed variables that the slightest change or error will throw the entire thing out the window)

2022年5月17日

註釋

eh.... downside really should be all the way to the left

2022年5月17日

註釋

Actually, if we're keeping the same colors, 'more bullish' should look like this:



just note though, the fib 100% level becomes somewhat arbitrary so that everything else matches up. But this way, we have a revision/clarification of the previous fib levels.

2022年5月18日

註釋

Yep, I think its fair to say that we've failed and I'm just looking at a good price point to go short -- still a small chance of recovery however, I'm not banking on it but still. It might hit $400 and just keep going up instead of hitting that ceiling.

Basically, one of these times it has to break the ceiling.... $400/$401 and eventually $428

2022年5月19日

註釋

So.... just going to pick a random number.... $384! That's the bottom!

seriously though, my previous numbers were a setup for a bullish case and its pullbacks, while I remain confident in the general solidness of the $360 region, nobody is saying we're going there in a straight line. I'm not yet bearish, though maintain that we could see $360 by the year's end. (Though I'm warming to the idea of $350)

2022年5月20日

註釋

I don't feel like spamming the SPY page for Likes, so I'm just going to keep updating here.

I think this would mean we're bullish -- say we get $408, $417 and obviously if we manage to stay there

2022年5月24日

註釋

update - been toying around with the pine script editor and was magically bearish but unsure why. I literally said, this thing is useless if we don't jump down soon. And somehow, overnight, it did. But I'm still checking it etc.

But here's a screen from QQQ to show you what I mean

2022年5月24日

註釋

yesterday afternoon, it was trying to recover but moving in a way that would never have the momentum to break 0 completely and reverse. But all was green, even QQQ was catching up to the huge upside lead that SPY began the day with.