How I Could Be Wrong About the $SPX
Came into 2015 negative on equities with very high cash levels. For a number of fundemental and risk profile reasons we are reluctant to allocate to equites. However, on a technical basis the 
SPY has spent Q1 in two defined trading ranges if the recent lows in SPY hold the market will have put in a higher low. The bull market since 2009 has been defined by ever shallower drawdowns. Assuming a near 5% and 4% drawdown and the pattern holds we're looking at a less than 3% drawdown from a higher level for the balance of 2015. While we find this unlikely it's important to document the risk to our bearish viewpoint. Technically it's important to our viewpoint that the market has a greater than 4% pull back from a high or makes a new low in 2015.
SPY has spent Q1 in two defined trading ranges if the recent lows in SPY hold the market will have put in a higher low. The bull market since 2009 has been defined by ever shallower drawdowns. Assuming a near 5% and 4% drawdown and the pattern holds we're looking at a less than 3% drawdown from a higher level for the balance of 2015. While we find this unlikely it's important to document the risk to our bearish viewpoint. Technically it's important to our viewpoint that the market has a greater than 4% pull back from a high or makes a new low in 2015.
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