Can dumb money outwit smart money?

2023年2月1日

I decided to try looking at the insider buys and sells recently to see if I can get an insight into what may happen in the coming months.
I was specifically looking for CFO & COO buys and sells larger than 5% of their portfolio, I figure the CFO and COO have good insight into the company and if they are taking a sizable portion of their holdings it should have some meaning. Here are the results

# of CFO or COO who sold 5% or more since friday: 13
# of CFO or COO who bought 5% or more since friday: 3

# of CFO or COO who sold 5% or more in January: 150
# of CFO or COO who bought 5% or more in January: 16


Overall It looks like the hedge funds and insiders are trimming their positions while retail is buying the dips.
There have been cases where retail actually managed to outwit the institutions but more often than not in scenarios like this there is another leg down.

I am really feeling the rug pull double top scenario drawn in orange, but I figured I would throw up the bullish case as well drawn in blue.
Just my opinion, hope you enjoyed the pictures.