An FOMC bull run could setup a giant Adam & Eve Pattern

2022年12月12日

FOMC could lead to a strong bull run. This scenario would line up well with the Fed's schedule for rate hikes and cuts. The most bullish scenarios now have us with a 5% terminal rate by about April, then no rate cuts until late Q4 2023 to Q1 2024. This long plateau is typically when markets have peaked in the past, or upon the first cuts. As seen here:

s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/x/XMzz9HAe.png

Perhaps more important is when the yield curve turns up again. Once it gets above about +.3%, after inversion, the market tends to crash hard.


For more info on Adam & Eve patterns, check the pattern site. It's a wonderful resource.

thepatternsite.com/AdamEvePatterns.html

Targets would be long to ~450 SPY then short to ~240. It would make MMs a lot of money, so you shouldn't be surprised if it plays out like this.

2022年12月13日

註釋

2023年10月11日

註釋

Still valid