SPY Market Analysis - 14/3/2025

• The bears got a tight bear channel down which means persistent selling.
  
• The current leg down is in the form of a 9-bar bear microchannel. There could be sellers above the first pullback.
  
• The selling pressure has been stronger (big bear bars, consecutive bear bars) as compared with the weaker buying pressure (bull bars with no follow-through buying).
  
• The bears want a measured move to around 5400 in the SPX which is just 100 points away fro yesterday's low.
  
• If the market trades higher, the bears expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the current leg low (Mar 13).
  
  
• The bulls see the move down as climactic.
  
• They hope to get a reversal from a parabolic wedge.
  
• The problem with the bull's case is that the bull bars have no sustained follow-through buying.
  
• They need to create consecutive bull bars trading near their high to convince traders that they are back on control.
  
  
• The move down has been strong. The market remain Always In Short.
  
• If there is a pullback, odds favor a second leg sideways to down to retest the current leg extreme low (Mar 13).
  
• There could be sellers above the first pullback from the 9-bar bear microchannel.
  
• For now, traders will see if the weekly candlestick will close with a long tail below (like the last 2 weeks).
  
• Or will the market retest yesterday's low and close the week near its low instead?