$SPY - two scenarios

I’m eyeing two scenarios for SPY. First, we could test the resistance around 418, then if that breaks we could see the September highs around 431. What’s interesting is that the September high largely correlates to Apple’s run up, and subsequent fall into October 2022.

The second and more likely scenario that I see playing out is an inverse head and shoulders. Bank earnings, followed by tech earnings at the end of the month with be the catalyst for the next leg down. I see the AI bubble bursting and QQQ leading the way lower. OIL will also increase as we reach a seasonal summer period, re-igniting inflationary pressures. Currently holding June 400P as I expect scenario two to play out. I’ll keep you posted.