STZ forms a bear pennant after a slew of bad news!

2019年2月28日

Constellation Brands has enjoyed a massive run-up in the past 6 years and has come sharply off of its highs (around $230) in the past 5 months. STZ is a juggernaut in the alcohol industry and has deserved its high stock price given a very strong earnings growth trajectory. Lately, however, money has come out of the traditional vice stocks (alcohol and cigarettes) and poured into cannabis-related equities. STZ has noted that their growth is slowing (once in the more recent quarterly and again in a conference on February 20th). In an acknowledgement of slowing growth, STZ has taken a stake in pot stocks to diversify their business. While potentially a solid long term investment, STZ is currently showing a lot of vulnerability in the short term.

Technically, STZ was knocked down on those statements on February 20th and has since started to form a bearish pennant as seen in the charts above. I'd like to be a short seller of STZ on a breakdown from this pennant with an ultimate target of the $150 low that we saw on their last earnings report.

Short STZ on a trendline break
Target 1: 160
Target 2: 150
Stop: $172

2019年3月4日

交易進行

This trade is active here @ $169.50 as it breaks the support line.

2019年3月4日

註釋

Updated chart:

2019年3月5日

註釋

Pretty harsh selling today in a flat tape with no news. This has morphed into a bearish wedge and seems to be playing out nicely at the moment.

2019年3月13日

取消訂單

Made money and lost it back on this trade. Pretty much a wash here. Unlikely this pattern plays out now. Trade canceled.