The Inverted Yield Curve - A History Lesson

The yield curve has just recently reverted back to normal after the longest inversion in history. The yield curve has been perhaps the most reliable and only indicator needed to predict recessions. This time is no different. We are entering the final stages now, we are seeing the type of extreme greed levels needed for a major top.

The fed has just begun cutting rates, which was obviously a mistake, but the fed makes a lot of mistakes, nothing new there. They cut way too early and inflation is not on target for their 2% goal despite what Powell claims. The actions of the federal reserve, congress, and Yellen among others over the past 4-5 years is going to cripple the global economy and cause a great deal of pain for all consumers. This time is no different, AI is not going to save, semiconductors are not going to save us, it is already done. The actions required for the recession have already taken place, nothing else matters. It is simply a question of time now.

I hope I am wrong honestly, but after witnessing the recent market action I am more sure now than ever that the collapse is coming and will be soon. The good news is, this will present a generational wealth building opportunity somewhere around 2026. We will have a great recession, but we will recover and prosper in the long run. For bulls, I'm with you on riding this market up until it stops. However, the end is inching closer and closer. If the market continues up until the end of the year, we had better make some money on longs. We will need it. Godspeed.