The retracement went deeper than usual (down to ~$388, ~75% of the pole), which softens the textbook bull flag narrative — but doesn't invalidate the setup.
Key Elements
• Pole: ~$354 → ~$489
• Flag Low: ~$388
• Retracement: ~75% of the pole — a deep pullback, but still valid.
• Target: ~$550 — measured from breakout point, equal to the pole’s height projected upward.
Keep in mind that $460-$490 is a key S/R and the midline of a longer-term rectangle, so it could offer resistance. See here.
Volume Note
No clear volume contraction during consolidation, which weakens the classic flag interpretation. That said, volume could still confirm strength if it expands on a breakout.
Target Logic
Measured move from pole height points to ~$550 — only in play if a full breakout with strong volume follows.
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