Tilray Bull Outlook

已更新

Support found at 61.8% retracement, and 21 EMA, and trend line,
Support zone between 23.50 and 27.50
Rationally, I would expect at least a flash down to the low twenties.
Merger talks, WSB, stimmies add to the bull case

註釋

As of right now this is looking like a pretty safe entry at $28.84, not great but safe. Great would be between $19 - $24, if it goes that low. If it goes below $19 that would feel catastrophic and probably trigger tons of stop losses but don't rule it out.

Price just found support at the 50EMA and previous resistance, so it looks healthy but just because it touched and bounced a little bit intraday does not confirm a reversal. If you're a long term holder this is an ok place to DCA. If you're looking for your first entry it's just ok. I wouldn't fomo in yet, unless you have a long term bullish outlook and are ok with DCA'ing at a potentially higher price than next week.

There's time to watch this for a new trend and a reversal confirmation so be patient. Unless some news comes out about the merger going through and it flies again.

Basically what I'm saying is I'm still neutral at the moment and this one is going to require constant homework so I have no actionable indicators right now.

註釋

Upon further analysis, if you were to FOMO your first entry right here and then see a decline next week, you could still sleep at night knowing this was a decent entry. It's all about DCA though.

註釋

One thing I want people to understand about me is that when I draw out a chart like this and specifically point out that it's a bull outlook, the main reason I've put the chart together was to watch and see if it performs as expected. Once this had an obvious breakdown of the trending support and became completely disassociated with my projection, then I know it's time to reanalyze it.

Sometimes I'm calling the shot, but other times like this time, I was just projecting what the bull outlook would be. It has failed so it's time to wait for a new trend to form.