It's finally here...

8月9日

After four challenging years, TLT is making a strong return.

The key resistance level to watch is $100.00 or 50 EMA which can act as support or resistance.

If we can break through this barrier, there's a strong possibility of reaching all-time highs within the next 12 months. This potential is fueled by expected interest rate cuts, which could significantly benefit TLT.

First, rate cuts would likely increase bond prices, boosting TLT's net asset value. Second, lower future yield expectations could drive investors to seek the stability and income that long-term bonds offer, further increasing demand. Finally, in times of economic uncertainty, investors often turn to long-term Treasuries as a safe haven, making TLT an attractive choice in a low-rate environment.

9月6日

交易進行

Long term thesis still in play. I expect additional consolidation before moving higher.

9月20日

交易進行

If you missed out on the previous run, this might be your chance to jump in! Rate cuts are bullish for bonds. It is something that should be written in stone. Anything under 100 is a buy. At 50 bps, a fair price for TLT with current rate cuts is at 115 on the high side and 105 low side.

10月4日

交易進行

We experienced some downside due to yields rising and hot job reports. I do want to point out these jobs were mostly from the government sector but payrolls are still down. Economic uncertainty still looms from geopolitics, sahm-rule, and the yield curve un-inverting. This is still severely undervalued.

Fair price : 115

Stay resilient.