Yields are likely in early stages of significant multi-month retrace lower into summer 2024
註釋
Good start註釋
Early stage註釋
More pulling back ahead註釋
Should start turning up註釋
Very good price action following the expected path註釋
I made a mistake with the instrument here, instead of TLT should have used IEF as 10 yr yields will fall faster than 30 yr yields註釋
It is highly likely that this upswing starting Oct 2023 extends into Oct 2025. Obviously no straight line but some correction starting Aug into Oct 2024註釋
Entertaining to say the least註釋
Market participants are fully imposing the Trump trade across asset markets. This most likely will form a triangle (currently D wave forming to the downside) before new highs in yields/lows in bonds註釋
Bonds setting initial low on that decline likely this week註釋
JP was a bit hesitant yesterday which is incrementally hawkish (as was Logan). I was very confident that this will happen once DJT wins. More cuts will further destabilize yields註釋
Probably quick rally this week註釋
Market was already sniffing the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Sec as an outspoken deficit hawk註釋
Should be heading higher into summer June/July. Bessent has massive debt to rollover
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