Timing the next stock market crash
The TLT/SPX ratio has been a useful tool to anticipate market crashes in the past, and I'm seeing several signs suggesting a renewed risk-off period. This ratio broke a 28-month-long trendline in October after having hit its 2007 lows back in January. The 200-DMA provided support in November, leading up to the most recent market correction two weeks ago. The TLT/SPX October highs are at the same level as the February 2011 lows, making this a technical level above which a strong market correction could take place. This is definitely something to watch at the start of next year.
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