Channel Dynamics with Fib & EMA Confluence

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Traders, let’s examine the Crypto Total Market Cap (CRYPTOCAP) on the daily chart—a setup with well-defined levels to monitor. We’re navigating an ascending channel since February, with price action respecting this structure. The lower channel support at 2.31T (0.236 Fibonacci level) is a critical bounce area, consistently providing support, as seen with the recent hold at 2.326T. This level also aligns with the cup pattern’s wall support, making it a significant zone for potential buying interest if revisited.

A notable confluence: the recent rejection at 3.321T hits the 0.382 Fibonacci level (3.33T), where the 13 EMA on the daily chart also converges—a high-probability area for traders. This positions 3.33T as a key level for bullish momentum. If price bounces off the 13 EMA or above,
Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high around $125,000. At $125,000, with Bitcoin’s recent 63% dominance (up from 60% at the peak, reflecting its strength), the total market cap would climb to approximately 3.905T (Bitcoin market cap = $125,000 × 19.7M = 2.4625T; 2.4625T ÷ 0.63 = 3.905T), exceeding the current high of 3.66T.

On the downside, if price drops below 2.88T, the bullish run may be over. We might see a bounce, but it’s likely to form a lower high—potentially around 3.0T to 3.1T—before continuing a downward trend. Interestingly, the 3.1T level also aligns with an extension of the cup pattern’s support structure, reinforcing its importance. At 3.1T, Bitcoin would likely trade near $99,500 (based on 63% dominance), making this a critical area to watch for both support and potential reversal. A break below 2.31T targets 2.21T (0.0 Fibonacci), and further weakness could push price to 2.0T, a level that may clear out weaker positions.

I lean bullish if we hold above the 13 EMA at 3.33T, targeting a new Bitcoin high of $125,000 and a total market cap of 3.905T. However, a drop below 2.88T suggests a lower high and a bearish continuation, with 3.1T (and its cup support alignment) as a key level to monitor. The channel, Fibonacci levels, and 13 EMA offer a clear roadmap—stay alert at these zones.



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