MARKETS week ahead: May 11 – 17

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Last week in the news

The major event during the previous week was the FOMC meeting. Fed held interest rates unchanged, but the main input from Chair Powell was that the Fed is ready to take immediate action in case of a negative consequences of imposed trade tariffs. This brought back investors confidence in financial markets, where the US Dollar gained in value, as well as the US equity market. The S&P 500 closed the week at the level of 5.659. The price of gold dropped on a stronger US Dollar, to the level of $3.326. There has been a reaction also in US Treasury yields, where the 10Y benchmark was last traded at 4,39%. This time the crypto market was not left behind the major developments. BTC made a significant weekly gain by managing to cross the $100K psychological level, reaching the highest levels as of the end of the week above the $103K.

The most expected and watched event during the previous week was the FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's address to the public in an after-the-meeting press conference. The Fed left interest rates unchanged, as was expected, but noted something which brought back the confidence among market participants. Namely, it has been acknowledged that the uncertainty over economic outlook has increased, mostly due to imposed trade tariffs. Still, on a positive side is that the Fed is ready to take immediate actions in case that trade tariffs make a significant impact on the US economy and Fed's dual mandate targets.

In an interview, St. Louis Fed President Musalem noted that he will not vote for rate cuts until he is certain over the effect of imposed tariffs on the US economy. In this sense, there is the question whether tariffs would lead to persistent inflation, or it is going to be only a one-off effect. The same opinion with Musalem shares Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and is also concerned about future productivity of the US economy and discouragement of investments.

The week ahead might bring back some investors' concerns as it is expected to be the start of negotiations between the US and China over the imposed trade tariffs. The US signed an agreement with the U.K. over tariffs of 10%, while many analysts are noting that this might be the target for the rest of the countries in the world. As per US President, his expectations are that tariffs with China might be agreed at 80%. Although this is a drop from the current 145%, analysts are still noting that this is again too high a level of tariffs which might hurt the US economy.

The ECB Board member Schabel noted in an interview during the previous week, that ECB should stop further cuts of interest rates. The mentioned reason is that the increased global instability is slowly adding to inflation in the EuroZone.



CRYPTO MARKET
A positive sentiment from traditional financial markets this time was reflected also on the crypto market. This was one of weeks with significant gains, where the vast majority of crypto coins finished the week in green. What is most important, the total crypto market capitalization returned to the positive territory from the start of this year, by gaining 10% only during this week. Total value was increased by $309B. Daily trading volumes surged to the level of $235B on a daily basis, from $106 traded the week before. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at 1%, with $ 26B inflow of funds.

Bitcoin was the major coin who led total crypto market capitalization to the higher grounds. BTC added $140B to its market cap, increasing it by 7,3% on a weekly basis. Excellent performance had ETH, which surged by even 36%, adding $80B to its market cap. Market favourite Solana was up by more than 17%, increasing its cap by $13B. The same amount of funds was added to XRP, whose surge was 10,6% w/w. The meme coin DOGE was another significant gainer with an increase in value of 33,2%, collecting new $8,7B. Uniswap and Theta were also significant gainers with a surge in market cap of more than 30%. There are a significant number of other altcoins who managed to gain between 10% and 20% w/w.

There has been increased activity with circulating coins. Stellar added 0,4% of new coins to the market. IOTA increased the number of circulating coins by 0,3%, while Filecoin and Solada added 0,2% new coins to the market.


Crypto futures market

In line with spot market developments and increased positive sentiment, the crypto futures market gained during the week. BTC futures were last traded higher by more than 6%, while ETH futures surged by more than 26%. What is important to note is that BTC long term futures passed the level of $110K. In this sense, futures maturing in December 2026 closed the week at the level of $114.130, and those maturing as of the end of this year were last traded at $107.460.

ETH long term futures are now trading above the $2,5K level. Futures maturing in December 2026 closed the week at $2.636, and those with maturity in December 2025 reached the last price at $2.450.

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